2015 NFL Mock Draft

It is time of the year where I do my annual NFL Mock draft, therefore here it is- Gargy’s 2015 NFl Mock Draft with some notes and my expert analysis.

1. Tampa Bay Bucs- Jameis Winston. The Bucs have so many holes however everyone knows you need a great Qb to win the superbowl. He goes first, if you can find a market to bet on it- Get on!

2. TRADE… San Diego Chargers. Marcus Mariota. The Titans have the Chargers, Browns, Eagles, probably Bears and even Rams calling them trying to do a trade and so they can pick and choose what suits them best and I think taking Rivers plus a couple of picks makes them an instant contender in the AFC, as the AFC South isn’t that great. The Chargers on the other hand must be petrified that Rivers could play out the season and walk away leaving them with a massive hole-I feel they pull the trigger now, chuck in a few late trades and its on!!!

3. Jacksonville Jaguars. Leonard Williams. Some suggest he could go #1, he is a big human and good pass rushers are hard to find, this guy is great.

4. Kevin White or Amari Cooper. Oakland Raiders. I know what a p*ssy not making a call!! But I honestly don’t know which way they jump. I think the jury is still out on Carr, but he needs some targets, If you get him a good rookie WR in the draft, coupled with Crabtree who they got as a free agent- he will have targets and they will therefore know if they have their QB or not. Both receivers are good, if pushed I think they go with Cooper, Although I think longer term White has more upside.

5. TRADE…. New Orleans Saints. Dante Fowler. The Saints have two first round picks and could almost start anywhere, but they need help with pass rush and therefore go up and get a guy they really like and chuck in a few mid rounders to the Redskins to sweaten the deal. The Redskins love the additional pick(s) as they are still paying the price for going up and getting RG3 a few years back. Saints overhaul tarts this year and they start with defence.

6. NY Jets. Shane Rey. New Head coach Todd Bowles will go defense in the front 7.

7. Chicago Bears. Whoever doesn’t go with White or Cooper. So more than likely Kevin White. They are short at WR after they traded Marshall to the NY Jets.

8. Atlanta Falcons. Bud Dupree. They need a pass rusher badly, well they need a few positions actually, but this will be the start.

9. NY Giants. Brandon Scherff. After hitting the jackpot with OBJ last year, this year they need someone to keep Manning safe, hence going with the O Line.

10. St Louis Rams. Ereck Flowers. I think they need help with the O Line. And so for the second year in a row go an OL in the 1st round.

11. Minasota Vikings. We have another TRADE.. Todd Gurley gets selected as the first RB taken in the 2015 draft. He is drafted because AP has been sent to Arizona for this year and next years 1st rounders. To be honest its best for everyone, AP gets a fresh start, Arizona get a RB which they really badly need and the Vikings get a stud RB plus an extra pick.

12. Cleveland Browns. DBG. The Browns struck out last year with Jonny football * that other CB (name eludes me) and I reckon they push their luck with DBG. If he stays out of trouble could be a stud, however he has a chequered past and it is a Browns thing to do to take such a risk.

13. Redskins Trae Waynes. The Redskins secondary was bad last year, Waynes is the #1 rates CB and he helps them.

14. Dolphins. Devante Parker. This was a tough one, as with addition of Suh they will be a lot stronger, but they could add a good WR.

15. San Francisco 49 ers. Kevin Johnson. The 49 ers lost two starting CB’s and will take the next best CB on the board

16. Houston Texans. Nelson Agholor. After seeing Johnson walk away from the Texans after 12 years they need a WR to fill that spot.

17. Tennesse Titans. Andrus Peat. The Titans have a stack of holes, but now with a new QB (Phil Rivers), the first thing they need to do is protect him and therefore the first pick is the best available OL player.

18. KC Chiefs. Vic Beasley. The have Justin Houstan on the Franchise Tag but keeping him long term will cost a boat load of money and cost players, Beasley will fill in really nicely and the Chiefs will feel it is a steal to see Beasley available at 18.

19. Lael Collins. Browns Again. Seriously who knows with the Browns. A solid DT or Lineman would help solidify the line and Collins is well rated

20. Philadelphia Eagles. TJ Clemmings, Pitt. The Eagles have a few holes in the secondardy, Outside LB and WR but given they have acquired Murray and Mathews- Philly will want to run the ball, and in order to run the ball you must have a good O Line.

21. Cincinati Bengals, Landon Collins. The Bengals have drafted a fair few players from Alabama in recent years, Collins is another

22. Pittsburg Steelers, Byron Jones U Conn. Ike Taylor and Troy Polomalo are gone and therefore they need a CB, this guys stats are off the charts, his vertical jump saw him jump close to 15 feet.

23. Detroit Lions, Danny Shelton, Huge body- check out how chunky his legs are,!! But seriously they need beef up front after losing fairly and Suh, even thought they picked up Ngata

24. Minasota Vikings, After trading away AP they get another pick and they go O Line with Jake Fischer from Oregon

25. Carolina Panthers, Erik Armstrong- don’t know anything about him but he is high on most boards

26. Baltimore Ravens, Benji Marshall, I am just checking to see is people are still reading

27. Dallas Cowboys, Marcus Peters CB. They picked up wife basher Greg Hardy, and they have Josh Brent on the roster and he killed a team mate due to drinking driving, so the fact Peters choked his coach is no worries at all. Jerry Jones is all about winning- character concerns are not his concern.

28. Denver Broncos Max Williams, They lost their #1 TE in free agency and this is surely Mannings last chance isn’t it? So they give him another due to chuck it to.

29. Indy Colts. Phillip Dorsett, Another WR and this dude is fast, really fast. Will help provide better balance with the receiving corps

30. Green Bay Packers. Malcolm Brown, the packers are so good in attack, they need to improve their defence and a big DT will help

31. New Orleans (from Seattle thanks to Jimmy Graham trade) DJ Humpries, They need to rebuild the O line.

32. Trade. I don’t know who comes up, but New England always trade out of the 1st round and pick up a few extra picks.

So there it is, let me know what you think.

Gargy

If I was Dave Smith- How to fix the NRL

Gargy Here; This site is typically an NFL betting blog/Pod cast that a mate and I use during the NFL season, however the NRL is my favourite sport and I feel the NRL could learn so many lessons from the NFL with regards to how to run a professional sport, so here is my take on what problems the NRL has and what it needs to address to fix it-

  1. Free Agency. Ok full disclose I am a Manly Fan and the timing of this point given the all the DCE and Foran stuff is questionable and could be perceived as sour grapes- it isn’t. I don’t like the fact Merrin is leaving the Dragons, I didn’t like it when James Maloney left the warriors and still played out the season for the Warriors. Now please note I am not criticizing the players, they are doing what the governing body allows them to do, but it needs fixing.
  • Free agency should open on the Thursday after the grand Final in the first week of October; no player should be able to sign with another club before then. Some of the excuses I hear why this is a bad idea include; players need time to move house, find new schools for the kids, it’s not enough time for the clubs to start planning or clubs will sign players in secret anyway, so here I will present my counter arguments
  • The new house/School argument. What happens in the real world when someone moves interstate for a new job? Typically they get put in an apartment or hotel for the first 4-8 weeks to find accommodation to help with the relocation. NRL players should be no different.
  • Kids/schools argument- How many NRL actually have kids and what is the actual percentage? It’s a young man’s game I would hazard a guess and say it’s fewer than 15%? Pre-season starts in the first week of November and as mentioned above, the player can move into the hotel in his new area whilst the wife and kids finish school until December and at which time when school finishes for the year the wife and kids join the NRL player. They can enrol the kids at the new school, so that they can start at their new school in the January.
  • Not enough planning? Give me a break, if a club cannot sign someone in the early October and not put together a pre-season fitness program for that player they are in the wrong industry, what’s next?
  • They will do it anyway. Anyone remember when Glen Hall left the bulldogs and signed with souths on the 1st of July in the early 2000’s- absolute malarkey.! The old rule was no signings before 1 July and all the deals were done in the background. Well to counter “the its going to happen anyway argument” how about any club found to be negotiating before free agency starts is hit with a fine of $500k and any manage caught shopping their players around before free agency will lose their NRL accreditation. Very harsh penalties to deter clubs from breaking the rules.

A couple of the benefits with making a free agency period-

  • If a player does leave their current club, it’s in the off season and much easier for the fans to swallow
  • It will stop the ‘DCE type tours’ which is a terrible look for the game and plays out in the media in season.
  • It gives the NRL an extra week or two of headlines in the media in the off season, and typically the only headlines in the offseason is poor player behaviour, so it will be a nice change.
  • For clubs who didn’t make the semi-finals it gives them something to look forward to without waiting for a ball to be kicked off in March.

2. Media Access the NRL provides each club with a $7.1M grant, I believe the NRL needs to insert a few clauses to go with the grant whereby if clubs cannot meet a few agreed points their grant decreases; availability to media is one of those criteria points. All players in the top 25 must be available to talk with the media every week, no media bans/hiding players, if they are in the top 25 they are open to everyone and they have to be available to speak with the media for at least …say 5 minutes each week (no beastmode ‘”I’m here so I don’t get fined” type answers). When players and coaches do with meet the media no Darius Boyd type “yes” /“no answers or the NRL will fine the club $50k and also the player.

The broadcasters money almost funds the game, therefore if they want a camera in the dressing room to see the coach talking- no covering it up, show the viewers what happens inside the dressing sheds. The NFL had access to Pete Carroll during the last minute of play during the superbowl and heard exactly what he was saying to his fellow coaches and players, can you imagine Des Hasler or Geoff Toovey allowing that type of access? NO CHANCE. It was amazing to hear what instructions he was giving in the biggest game of the season. The fans want to see and hear what the coaches say when their teams are under immense pressure when the game is on the line- give them access to it, wire up the coaches, have cameras in the coaching boxes. It all helps to sell the game and get the fans more involved.

3a State of origin Schedule. This is a tough one and very hard to come up with a solution that suits everyone, there are several options, including-

  • Continue the three week cycle on a Wednesday night. It’s a ratings bonanza for Channel 9 to have it on midweek and rates close to 4 million viewers each game, I personally feel the 8 or 9 weeks that SOO is on, is too disruptive to the competition and often the games played before/after SOO are often really poor standard. Plus it makes the competition very unfair as the difference with playing say the Storm in the first 8 weeks, is very different to playing them whilst origin is on.
  • Continue every 3 weeks on but switch to a Monday night, this would give the elite players an additional 48 hours to recover and be available for the clubs. Personally I don’t think this suits the broadcaster and the 2 days doesn’t really help the players, either.
  • Craig Bellamy proposed Origin is structured so that the first game is played on a Wednesday, then 10 days rest and game 2 is played on the following Sunday and then another 10 days rest and then a final game on the Wednesday. This does have merit however I think unless they reduce the number of games (which isn’t a good option) the season simply becomes too long. Plus it isn’t ideal to stop the comp for 3 weekends without footy, so I am proposing
  • SOO to be played within 21 days on consecutive Wednesday nights and over this time there will be only two weekends with no football. There would be some teams who have a Bye on the weekend before the first Origin game and some teams would also have a bye at the end of the series. I would scrap the Anzac test and City vs Country weekend (where there is no club football between round 8 and 9), I would also reduce the 2 x bye’s team receive to one, (thus this is where we keep each club with 24 games and don’t make the season any longer) and therefore the season would start and finish on the same weekends. The SOO coaches could name squads with 23 players for the series. Under my schedule Round 14 would commence on Friday 5th (round 13 for the NRL) and there would only be 5 games played, SOO 1 would be on Wednesday 10thof June,  game 2 on the 17th of June with game 3 being played the 24th of June. Round 15 of the NRL would be commencing on Friday the 26th of June and there would only be 5 games for this round, with 6 teams having a BYE. Of the remaining four teams to have their bye’s, two have them in round 16 and two in round 13. I feel the biggest problem with my schedule is the fact the elite players won’t get a break and if injury free could play 29 straight games every weekend which is extremely taxing on their bodies. However it is up to the clubs to manage their players and not allow them to burn out.

3b* Expansion and creation of two conferences

  • It is a rip off of the NFL and NBA where there are conferences in place, but I believe the competition would work best with 20 teams and 4 conferences with 5 teams in each conference. Obviously this is a number of years away but it could work where traditional rivals in the same conference play at home and away and once against all other teams for a total of 23 games. 11 home game, 12 away games as all teams would be required to play a game in the bush- Mackay/Tamworth/Wagga etc..So as an example- Souths, St George, Roosters, Bulldogs and Wests Tigers could be in a one conference and by grouping tradition rivals particularly the Sydney teams you would get more “block buster type games” along the lines of Manly v Parra or Roosters vs Rabbitohs. Its also a no brainer for the 4 or 5 Queensland team to play each other every year at home and away.  Re expansion I would bring in Perth, a second Brisbane team, NZ would get a second team and I unsure of the 20th team; PNG or Central Queensland would probably be preferred over the Central Coast or Adelaide where I think we have missed the boat.

4. Rule changes. I want less stoppages and more excitement and I would propose the following-rule changes-

– The game should be played over 2 x 35 minute halves

– When the ball rolls out of the field of play or is grounded in goals the clock stops until play resumes

– When a try is scored the clock does not re-start until the kick off.

– I think there should only be 8 interchanges; however an under 20’s player is available to be an emergency replacement when a player is the recipient of foul play and cannot return to the field and this replacement does not count towards the 8 interchanges

5. Last point Two players in each NRL squad should be able to pay an unlimited amount of money and their salaries do not count towards the salary cap. The NRL cannot continue to lose players like Hayne, Williams & Burgess- and while these guys all had different reasons for leaving the NRL, but they are superstars, the game needs superstars. It also might see superstars from other sports joining the NRL

Pelican Punting Podcast – SuperBowl Special

Gargy is in hospital, but do you think that is going to stop us doing a podcast for the Superbowl?  Not on your life!  Featuring a special guest appearance from the Puppetmaster, live from the course at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as he gears up for a trip to University of Phoenix stadium tomorrow for the big game.

Stream the podcast by clicking here.

Conference Championship Games – Shirty’s Preview

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner!  Those of you paying attention would have noticed a fantastic return to form for your’s truly last week, when my podcast tip of Packers/Patriots/Colts +10.5 romped home…Ok, so only the Colts leg “romped” while the Packers “limped” and the Patriots “squeeked” home, but screw you, a wins a win and I am BACK baby!

Unfortunately, Gargy and I have not been able to get our respective houses in order to put on a podcast this week (it’s my fault to be frank – Gargy is chomping at the bit) but we will be back with a year in review show and a Superbowl preview in the days leading up to the big game.  We won’t be covering the pro-bowl, because, well, it’s not real football anyway (standard advice applies to the game – bet the overs).

But before we get to the Big Show, we have the conference round to get through, with a resurgent Seattle playing host to the Packers and the Patriots hosting the upstart Colts.  On paper, this looks like a Seattle v Patriots superbowl waiting to happen, and the bookies agree;

Head to Head:
Green Bay $3.75 v Seattle $1.29
Indy $3.22 v Patriots $1.37

Line:
Green Bay (+7.5) $1.94 v Seattle (-7.5) $1.90
Indy (+6.5) $1.95 v Patriots (-6.5) $1.89

Over/Under
GB/Seattle: 46 Points $1.92 each of two
Indy/Pats: Over 53.5 $1.90 / Under 53.5 $1.94

So here’s what I am thinking.  I think we can agree we have the 4 best teams playing off for the conference titles.  The only major upset of the playoffs, I would argue, was Indy knocking off Denver, but in hindsight, the way Manning was (not) playing, maybe that wasn’t such a big upset after all.  Now, I’ve been harping on about the Dogs all year, and I will be posting a column next week to review their overall performance over the course of the year, but why wouldn’t we latch on to the best Dogs of the year here? Yes they are away, and yes, particularly GB has it’s issues with Rogers carrying a niggle, but these teams have been good enough to get here, have QB’s that we know can get the job done, and are getting some serious points in the bargain.

So punters, get on the Dogs, and ride them all the way to the Big Show:

$100 Green Bay +7.5 @ $1.94 – $194
$100 Colts +6.5 @ $1.95 – $195
$50 Colts +6.5 into Green Bay +7.5 @ $3.78 – $189
$20 Colts (win) into Green Bay (win) @ $12.08 – $241.60

Come on you dogs, carry us home!

Now, haters gonna say that the only thing more ridiculous than these bets is this video clip;

But you know what, haters gonna hate.  Tell ’em Taylor;

Happy Punting!

Shirt

Pelican Punting Podcast – Episode 8

This week we take a look back at the wildcard round and Shirty’s punting (both pretty average),  preview the divisional match ups, and have a chat to our very special guest, Foxsport’s Adam Peacock, who joins us to talk Asian Cup, which according to all reports, kicks off tonight, with Australia taking on the might of Kuwait.

Stream the podcast to your ear holes by clicking here

NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

Pelican Punting Podcast – End of 2014 Edition

Sitting at home alone with nothing to do on New Year’s Eve?  Convinced yourself that NYE is “massively overrated” and you are better off “avoiding the hassle”?  Decided that if you’ve seen one firework you’ve seen them all (but perhaps still made an effort to go out and watch the local ones at 9pm, and will almost certainly turn on the coverage on TV at midnight)?

Well, what better way to farewell 2014 and with it, the NFL regular season, and welcome in the New Year and the Playoffs, than by listening to Gargy and Shirt talk for half an hour!  And while 2014 slips away, you can lie back and think about all of the things you failed to do last year but that you will definitely get on to in 2015, like getting your podcast up on iTunes…

Happy New Year folks!  Stay safe, and stay tuned for more Pelican Punting goodness as we navigate our way towards the Superbowl over the coming weeks.

Listen to the Podcast by clicking this link.

Shirty

NFL Week 17- Gargy’s Best Bets

Hello punters, no Podcast this week, but I did want to tip our listeners into a few winners- now buyer beware!! There are a heap of games which mean absolutely nothing and the perfect example was last week when Indy didn’t turn up and got walloped by Dallas. There are hindsight bets all over the place, so the cash grandma gave you in a card for Christmas- spend wisely on winners in week 17.

 

Nothing games– there are a stack of them but the ones I will highlight is where teams are headed to the play offs

Indy at Titans. Indy are almost guaranteed the 4th spot and will host the loser of the Steelers/Bengals game next, the Titans are either going to finish 31st or 32nd in the event the Bucs upset the dreadful Saints. I wouldn’t be backing either team with Shirty’s money.

Dallas at Redskins- Dallas $1.32, horrendous value for a team with nothing to play for. They are getting a home play off next week, they could get a bye if Seattle get beaten or the packers/Lions game ends in a draw- not happening Avoid!. If they have any sense they rest their starters.

Pats are $1.45 vs Bills, Pats probably don’t want to rest their starters given they have a bye next week, but they don’t want Gronk, Blount or any other major contributors getting hurt- Avoid!

 

The meaningful match ups

Green bay v Lions. Big game, but it wasn’t flexed to Sunday night, why? Because they probably think the Packers will win and wont be a great game. Lions cant score, but they have good defence. $4.78 or +7.5 at the line.

NFC South winner Panthers at Flacons. Falcons have been ok the last few weeks, but I reckon Cam Newton is looking good. $2.57 is one of the best prices for an outsider this week.

Bengals at Steelers- I hate betting on both teams, The Bengals are off a short week after a huge upset vs the Broncos at home in week 16, the Steelers did what they needed to clinch a play off berth. Its a big match because the loser goes on the road to Indy to face Luck and the Colts in week 1 of the play offs, the winner hosts the banged up Arizona Cardinals which is a very favourable match up. I think the Steelers will be too good and $1.57 is a good price.

Chargers at KC. The Chargers are $2.24 and I know my old mate Shirt loves them and they are a gutsy team. They have had a stack of injuries but keep turning up. $2.24 is good enough for me. If you stop Charles (easier said than done) the Chiefs cannot score. Phil Rivers will get it done and get them into the 6th spot in the AFC.

 

** Guaranteed winners**

The Bucs need to lose to get the #1 draft pick, surely they don’t win. The Saints are $1.52- get on, the Bucs don’t want to win. Stick it in your multi’s.

Seattle is $1.14 head to head and Arizona is not winning this game- include it in your multi’s, don’t get greedy with margins as they may yank their starters in the 3rd or 4th quarters.

The Vikings at home to the bears, the bears announced they were benching Cutler earlier in the week and now due to injury he will be back under centre #awkward, this could be Cutler’s last game for the Bears. $1.37 for the Vikings is skinny, but the team isn’t lifting for Jay and besides the Vikings have been great to the punters over the past month, so we are investing with the bookies cash.

 

So pick the above winners individually if you like, I will take a few multi’s in week 17 and anchor the Saints and Seahawks in all of them-

#1- Saints, Seahawks, Vikings- for a price of $2.37

#2- Saints, Seahawks, Chargers, Panthers- for a price of $10.70

#3 Saints, Seahawks, Chargers, Panthers, Steelers, for a price of $15.75

 

Stay tuned for the return of the Pod next week with a couple of special guests

 

Merry Christmas and happy punting

Gargy

Pelican Punting Podcast – Christmas Edition

Pelican Punting Podcast, Christmas Edition, wherein Gargy and I record a podcast after both consuming a tad too much Christmas cheer.  The result – thankfully not as diabolical as Gargy’s last plane trip.  Click the Podcast link below to get streaming;

Podcast

Merry Christmas all – enjoy the NFL Smorgasboard over the Christmas period – we’ll be back soon to talk you through the playoffs, as we chase our lost fortune after a pretty average season of punting.