AFC – Divisional Previews

AFC West Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)

Denver Broncos $1.24 (11.5 games – Under $1.82/Over $2.00)

San Deigo Chargers $6 (8 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)

Kansas City Chiefs $8.50 (8.5 games – Under $1.50/Over $2.60)

Oakland Raiders $41 (4.5 games – Over $1.57 / Under $2.40)

 

AFC East Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)

New England Patriots $1.22 (10.5 games – Over $1.54 / Under $2.50 )

Maimi Dolphins $8 (8 games – Under $1.60 /  Over $2.35)

New York Jets $9.50 (7 games – Over $1.82 / Under $2.00)

Buffalo Bills $13 (6.5 games – Over $1.67/Under $2.20)

 

AFC South Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)

Indianapolis Colts $1.67 (9.5 games – Under $1.74 / Over $2.10)

Houston Texans $3.25 (7.5 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)

Tennessee Titans $6.50 (7 games – Over $1.82/Under $2.00)

Jacksonville Jaguars $19 (4.5 games – Over $1.45 / Under $2.75 )

 

AFC West Winner (Over/Under Season Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers $2.60 (8.5 games – Over $1.60 / Under $2.35)

Cincinnati Bengals $2.80 (9 games – Under $1.74 / Over $2.10)

Baltimore Ravens $3.50 (8.5 games – Over $1.91/Under $1.91)

Cleveland Browns $10 (6.5 games – Under $1.82/Over $2.00)

 

Gargy - Shirt we have less than a week until the season kicks off so I am going to combine the AFC into 1 post and highlight a few of my special bets with my insightful comments.

AFC West; Denver win this division, but $1.25 is a horrible price.  Having said that if your bank said they would give you a term 5 month terms deposit with an interest rate at 25% you snap it up and wait for the manager to be committed. The more you bet the more you win. Get on! But don’t back over /unders. I think the Chiefs will regress and wont make the playoffs, I think the Chargers will grab a wildcard spot and will 8+ games, Oakland will have a high draft spot in next years draft.

 

AFC East, its so boring but the Pats win this division, Brady is a Gun. This division really worries me, as the rest of the starting QB’s are all questionable. The Jets defence is good, but with Geno Smith or the permanently injured Michael Vick under the gun I can’t see them winning more games than they lose. The Bills will struggle and Tannehill doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me.

 AFC South – If you listen to me and have 1 bet, do yourself a favour and back Indy to win 10+ games at even money, they will be better than last year, Luck will continue to get better, he has better receivers to throw to and their stout defence has bulked up. Seriously get on. The Texans drafted Clowney and everyone is raving about the pairing of him and JJ Watt and how great they will be, listen to me- they better put a lot of pressure on the QB because the secondary was dreadful last year and hasn’t been upgraded and they have a worse QB. Please tell me where is the hype is coming from. They win 7 games max. The Titans wont be much better than last year however I think the Jags will improve, they wont make the play offs but they wont finish 3rd last overall. Especially if they give Blake Bortles the starting QB job.

AFC North - The toughest division in football. I think this is the year Andy Dalton wins a play off match, The $3 is a nice price- I cannot have the Ravens and I think the Steelers will be better than last year but not as good the Bengals. The Browns. OMG, the best thing about Cleveland this year will be the homecoming of Lebron, not Jonny football and his bunch of un organized men. The Browns are in for a very long year.

In summary my division winners- Broncos/Pats/Colts/Bengals, wild card is much harder but lets say Chargers and Steelers.

Shirt are you with me brother?

Shirty – In a word Gargy, no.  I think there are two great value bets in this Conference, and I suggest you have both of them – they are unlikely to both get up, but the prices are so good that you can afford to drop one.  The first is the Dolphins to win the AFC East ($8), the second is the Chargers to win the AFC West ($6).  The rationale for both is similar – I expect both teams to continue to build on solid performances last year; I think both have made sensible personnel decisions in the off season, and I think the prices offered for both the Pats and Broncos are lazy on the part of the bookies – they don’t account for the fact that both Manning and Brady are a year closer to retirement and that they have done nothing revolutionary with their teams.  If I had to pick between the two I would take the Chargers, who I think will have a massive year.

With that in mind, I also have to take the Dolphins over 8 ($2.35) and the Chargers Over 8 ($1.60.  An absolute gift.  When you look at their schedule they could start the year 6-0).

I’m with you Gargy on the regression of the Chiefs, as are the punters with the Under 8.5 into $1.50.  Watch their offensive line fold like Gargy with a pocket pair behind a re-raise.  Poor old Alex Smith will cop an absolute pounding this year – they will win 6 games max.  I haven’t got quite your enthusiasm for the Colts but am with you on the Texans – the under 7.5 looks reasonable value @ $2.35.  I think the Jags can win some games this year, but with a line at 4.5 and the odds under $1.50 for overs, I will pass on them.

The AFC North is an interesting one.  Tend to agree that Cinci is probably the pick here, but it’s a tricky line at 9.  I am happy to call this one a no touchy.

So, playoff teams – Cinci (no confidence), Chargers, Dolphins, Colts, Pats, Broncos.

Stay tuned for later in the week when we release our real bets for the season and our best bets of week 1.

NFC West – Division Preview

NFC West Winner  (Over/Under season wins).

Odds as per Centrebet @ 29 August

Seattle Seahawks $1.77 (11 games – Over $1.91/Under $1.91)

San Francisco 49ers $2.70 (10.5 games – Under $1.71/Over $2.15)

Arizona Cardinals $8.50 (7.5 games – Under $1.65/Over $2.25)

St Louis Rams $15.00 (Odds suspended by Centrebet)

Gargy: Here it is, the best division in football. Last year the Cardinals finished 10-6 and missed the play off and this year I predict this division will be the best in the NFL. The Seahawks will win this division but it wont be easy; their offence will be as good as last year and their defence with Thomas, Sherman and Chancellor will be great again. 11 games in this division is hard to see, so I would err on the side of caution and not bet on the Seahawks for overs/unders instead take the $2.10 for winning he division (Shirt – now into $1.77)

I think the 49 ers will be there or there abouts in November/December however I do predict they will start slow as they will be without Aldon Smith and Navaro Bowman who are the best in the business. I reckon they win 10 games and grab a wild card spot.

The Cardinals were very good last year, however I cannot see them repeating their 2013 form, I reckon the bookies have it about right, and can see them sneaking 8 wins making the overs bet reasonable value.

Finally the Rams, I was going to make a big and outlandish statement that they would make a deep run, but then Sam Bradford blows his knee, is gone for the season and now they are looking for a new QB. I reckon they can go over the 8 wins. Now Shirt before I bore you to tears I want to tell you what the Rams got for the trade with the Redskins for RG3- In 2012 Brockers a solid player, in 2012 Janorious Jenkins and Alec Ogltree- 2 solid players and then in 2014 Greg Robinson who will play NFL for 10+ years and be excellent and RB Zach Stacy. Shirt is that stealing or what? Who is your pick big guy?

Shirt – The best division in football?  I don’t know what you are smoking big guy, but I want some.  Yes, the 49ers and Seahawks were standouts last year, and yes, I think they will be standouts again.  They will be neck and neck for the Division title and could both conceivably win 11+ games each.   The Cardinals over achieved last year and let’s face it, still have Carson Palmer at QB.  They may scrape together 8 wins, but I won’t be backing them to do it.  The Rams have Shaun Hill starting at QB, who once led the NFL Europe in passing yards when playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.  And he played for the 49ers when they were really bad back in the late 2000’s.  Apparently he is known as one of the “better back up QB’s in the league” which you could also read as meaning he is not a starting QB’s arsehole.  I am sure he is a lovely guy but man, the Rams are in barney rubble yet again.  No touchy.

Chase a bit of value and take the 49ers +10.5 off the back of a huuuuuge year from Kap.

BAlj0D-CMAAoyT7

NFC South – Division Preview

NFC South Winner  (Over/Under season wins).
Odds as per Centrebet @ 27 August

New Orleans Saints $1.65 (9.5 games – Over $1.48/Under $2.65)

Carolina Panthers $5.25 (8.5 games – Under $1.48/Over $2.65)

Atlanta Falcons $5.25 (8.5 games – Under $1.60/Over $2.35)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.00 (7 games – Under $1.91/Over $1.91)

 

Gargy: I feel this could be one of the best divisions in football. The Saints will have a top 5 offence, The Bucs will improve a lot this year and the Falcons will surely improve, and finally the Panthers who are still good, but wont reach 2013’s lofty heights. The $2.10 for the Saints is skinny and it sucks you cannot multi up the divisions winners- but $2.10 is better than bank interest- Load up*.    

They have Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham, they have a good group of receivers including Brandon Cooks and their defence continues to improve. However they are a risk at the over 9.5 games; the NFC is a very tough division and this year they play the NFC North and AFC North and there aren’t many easy wins amongst those 8 games.

Each year on average 6 teams do not reach the play offs in back to back years.  The Panthers, even with Cam Newton at QB and Greg Hardy and their good defence, will be one of those teams this year.  Back under 8.5 games because I just cannot see them wining 9 games – where will their points come from?

I think the bookies have the market right for the Falcons with 8 wins, it is not enough to sneak into a play off spot given how strong the NFC is, but it wont be the worst record in Football; Matt Ryan is an excellent QB, White and Julio Jones are an awesome one two punch, but their defence isn’t good enough.

Lastly and by no means worst is the Bus who drafted well, shopped well during free agency and will be my surprise packet within this division. Back over 7.5 wins and whilst I don’t think they will get into the play offs, go back through the records and all of Lovie Smith’s team have good defence.

Shirt my mate, are you with me and the Saints or do you like someone else big guy?

Shirty – with you on the Saints buddy, but I don’t necessarily share your enthusiasm for the rest of the Division.  I will be on Saints for over 9.5 wins.  I think the Falcons will be the big improvers out of the division on last year, but then I had them as contenders last year and got badly burned so I say that with no confidence.  The Panthers will struggle to score points this year and I reckon I would have a better than even shot of making it on the roster as a back up receiver – they lost all three main targets in the off season leaving Newtown with three new receivers to throw to, and this after finally finding his mojo last year.  They’re an under 8.5 bet for mine.  Finally, the Buccs.  Always lot’s of talk about the Buccs, rarely any output.  They’ve fired the coach and bought in Lovie – could this year be the year they turn it around and live up to expectations?  They went 4-12 last year, so can’t get much worse, and they have a promising 35 year old journeyman QB who was coaching High School football in 2011 and now…wait, what?  The Buccanneers are being touted as a sleeper side and possible playoff contender with Josh freaking McGowan under centre?  Sure, he was good filling in for Cutler at the Bears where he went 3-2, but his previous record over 8 seasons as a back up prior to that little burst included 32 fumbles and 44 interceptions.  And we are now supposed to buy the story that with age comes skill and wisdom, and he is now the guy?? Not with my cash buddy.

 

*Gargy wrote this preview a week ago – the Saints have now been smashed into $1.65 – he had them as a get on at $2.10, and I’m guessing he would still be having a nibble at the tighter odds.  I am sure he will tell us in the comments whether this is still a GET ON at the new price, assuming he doesn’t spend the whole post abusing me for taking so long to post this preview to the interweb…

NFC East – Division Preview

NFC East Winner  (Over/Under season wins).
Odds as per Centrebet @ 27 August

Philadelphia Eagles $1.91 (9 games – Over $1.74/Under $2.10)

New York Giants $4.75 (8 games – Under $1.82/Over $2.00)

Washington Redskins 5.00 (7.5 games – Under $1.87/Over $1.95)

Dallas Cowboys 5.50 (8 games – Under $1.44/Over $2.80)

 

Gargy: I reckon if the NFC South is the surprise packet of the Conference, and the NFC West is obviously the super power, this surely has to be division where defence is optional. I am badly biased but I am taking the $2.50 (*now into $1.91) on offer for the Eagles, however not with a great deal of confidence. In 2013 the Eagles went 10-6 but were bundled out in the play offs by the Saints in a very close game.  In the off season they let DeSean Jackson walk to the Redskins, but you know what? Their offence will be just fine. Chip Kelly’s teams score points. Period. Stopping them is another challenge. They brought in Jenkins from the Saints and Carroll from the Fins to bolster their ordinary secondary. Given this, I think they will win the division; I will take them to win 10 or more games again.

The Redskins, wow, I think RG3 will bounce back but someone has to teach that dude how to slide or he simply wont get through 16 games, they will score plenty of points but they will leak points also. I think they will be very close to an 8-8 season, but I am not all that confident.

The NY Giants, double wow. Eli Manning is like Ian Baker Finch of the QB’s in the NFL- the dude has forgotten how to play, he was absolutely shithouse in 2013 and threw 27 interceptions last season, 27!! I think JPP will have a good season and might challenge for comeback player of the year, but he will need to as they have lost defensive linemen and secondary players. Victor Cruz and rookie Odell Beckham will have to produce big numbers or they are in for a really bad year. I am on the unders as I think Eli will have a garbage year.

Finally the Cowboys, Man…. What can you say? In 2013 they had the worst defense in the NFL and this season they are without 3 of their best defensive players; they lost their best pass rusher in DeMacrus Ware, lose Jason Hatcher and will also be without their best ILB in Sean Lee.  If they get a few injuries, get use to them leaking 35+ points every match , on the flip side hey will score a heap of points (*the lesson being, get on the Overs when the Cowboys are playing…).  Say what you want about Romo but he does put up points, just don’t back him in December. He will be well protected with a great O-line and he will have Dez Bryant, Demarco Murray, Terrence Williams and TE Jason Witten at his disposal. 

Now here is a sneaky tip- at the start of the year get on the overs in most matches involving all the NFC East teams as bookies will only set their lines at low 50’s. Check the weather and whether its a dome game and make sure they are not against a gun defense/rubbish offence, but there is good money to be made early in the year.

Shirty what are you thinking my friend? Are you a Tony Romo Fan? Can RG3 bounce back? Will Eli be Good or Bad?

Shirty  I have the benefit of writing this a little later than Gargy wrote his preview, so I know, for example, that Kirk Cousins is apparently ahead of RGIII for the starting spot at the Skins.  I think this is actually a positive for the Skins, as they can probably do without an injury and error prone Griffin the Third at this stage.  I also know Eli continues to struggle with his game in the preseason (no surprises there), Sanchez might end up moving from the Eagles to the Rams (unlikely) and Romo continues to be Romo.

But my overwhelming theme for this post is going to be “reversion to the mean”.  

Our good friends over at Grantland and fivethirtyeight.com have been tossing around a thing called the Plexiglas Principle.  To quote Neil Paine at fivethirtyeight - “Teams making large improvements from one season to the next tend to give back some of the progress the next season.”  The Eagles had a massive turnaround in 2013, increasing their seasons wins from 4 to 10.  Now, plenty of people will point to new coach Chip Kelly and his offence as reason enough for the turnaround.  Or the unexpected form of rookie QB Nick Foles.  But the fact remains that a 6 game turnaround is huge by any measure, and mean reversion would tell us that they will fall back a few wins from there, assuming at least that their opponents also mean revert to something slightly better than “absolute garbage”, particularly when you factor in personnel changes (including giving up their best receiver) and a normal amount of injuries.  So the Eagles are going to get worse, but how much worse, particularly against this lot?  I am going to take the unders and lay the division title.

It’s no secret that I have a soft spot for the Giants, and really feel for goofy old Eli.  I would like to make the case that he is a great QB going through a bad patch (admittedly one that is a couple of years in duration) and that he, and the team, will revert back to something close to the form that carried them to the 2011 title, but it’s a tough sell.  Having said that, their schedule looks like an absolute gift – as well as playing in arguably the weakest division in the league, they have games against the Lions, Cardinals, Texans, Jags, Titans and Bradford-less Rams.  All very winnable.   The $4.75 could be a hint of value if you are prepared to take a chance that Eli will hit receivers more than defenders this year.

In terms of mean reversion, the Redskins had that in spades last year when they came crashing back to earth.  RGIII was out of this world in his debut season, but something had to give.  The fivethirtyeight guys do a much better job than I could at explaining it, but the fact that Kirk Cousins is being touted as a potential starter in front of RGIII should tell you all you need to know about how far they have fallen.  Having said that, from memory I talked up their defence last year in the preview (it turned out to be garbage, but it shouldn’t have been on paper) and if they can play to potential, and Cousins can do a serviceable job under centre and allow the offence to play with a bit of structure and continuity, they have a schedule that they could conceivably wring 8 wins from.

If the other 3 are due for some mean reversion, then the Cowboys are the very definition of average.  They are consistently over hyped, and consistently under achieve.  The fact that Tony Romo, the Crown Prince of underachievers, and Jason Garret are still working together is truly one of life’s great mysteries.  They are hopeless in defence, and although Romo is actually a really capable pocket QB, they consistently manage to find ways to nullify this and lose games.  They should go 8-8 or better but they won’t. Unders.

NFC North – Division Preview

NFC North Winner  (Over/Under season wins).
Odds as per Centrebet @ 24 August

Green Bay $1.70 (10.5 games – Over $1.74/Under $2.10)

Chicago Bears $4.00 (8.5 games – Over $1.67/Under $2.20)

Detroit Lions $4.25 (8.5 games – Under $1.74/Over $2.10)

Minnesota Vikings $20 (6 games – Over $1.71/Under $2.15)

Gargy: Green Bay are favourites for the division because they have the best QB in the division, and so if you are a favourite backer and if you think Aaron Rodgers stays healthy all year- get a piece of the $1.70 on offer. If you like value, think Rodgers will go down injured again or actually believe the Bears defence has improved enough to challenge for the division, get amongst the $4.00.  As for the Lions, I just can’t see them turning it around this year, and the Vikings are in for a tough season.  I see it as a two horse race. The Bears offence is great; they have two sensational receivers in Marshall and Jeffrey, and say what you want about Cutler but he can get it done. Matt Forte is good and Bennett at TE is an excellent target.  They made a big effort in the off season redoing their defence and signed Lamarr Houston, Willie Young and Jared Allen to be in their defensive line. They cannot win the SB, but they can win the Division.  I will also be backing them to go over the 8.5 win mark.

The Packers have focused on defence in the off season and with their #1 pick selected banger Ha Ha Clinton Dix at Safety, as well as signing Julius Peppers in free agency. As I said earlier, Rodgers is awesome and he alone can lead the Packers to the Division title.

Shirt hates the Lions and thinks they are massive under achievers and I too cannot back them – although their talent is ridiculous; To the prodigious Stafford and Megatron they have added Golden Tate, picked up Reggie Bush, and have the likes of Fairley, Suh etc.. The NFC North in my opinion has a very tough schedule, crossing with the AFC East, who could be anything, and the NFC South- who I think will be the toughest division to predict the winner of. My advice – don’t bet on anything to do with the Lions this year, and I will follow my own advice.

Finally the Vikings; they will be hopeless.  I predict Bridgewater will be a bust at QB and they will be looking for a QB in the 2015 draft.  Get on the  unders at a juicy $2.15. I am going to take the easy option and take Green Bay to win the division, Shirty give me your insight champion, who wins the division, who goes over, who goes under?

Shirt: Always a tough division with quality at the top in the form of Green Bay, the upside down Bears, the unpredictable Lions and the what the fuck do you with the Vikings.  I don’t share Gargy’s enthusiasm for the AFC East – I think the Pats will see some improvement on defence (they can’t get much worse) but I don’t see the others being particularly problematic.

For me, the Packers season is all about their first 5 weeks.  They start with a tough match against the Super Bowl champs in Seattle, then host the Jets who will be looking to fire early, before away games against the Bears and Lions, rounding out with a home game to the Vikings.  So by week 5, we should have a really good handle on whether they are going to dominate their division.  But I am not paid to quote the schedule.  Let’s say the drop the game to the Hawks in a close one in week one, flog the Jets at home, out duel the Lions, give up a narrow loss to the Bears and pump the hapless Vikings.  That has them 3-2 in the opening stretch.  Their only really tough away game outside the Division will be to the Saints, which they may drop, but otherwise they are away to the Dolphins, Buccs & Bills – all very winnable.  Meanwhile they get the Pats, Falcons and Panthers (who will be hopeless this year) at home, so you’d think they have to win 2/3 of those.  Even if they drop a couple of games to the Bears and Lions and go 4-2 in their division, they still end up 11-5.   Overs is the right bet, as is the $1.70 for division winner.

The Bears under their new coach Marc Trestman have cast of their previous reputation as defensive stalwarts which they enjoyed under Lovie Smith and have instead become hopeless on the defensive side of the ball – I am talking 30th in the league hopeless.  On the plus side, their offense opened up last year and they were actually pretty fun to watch.  We have gone through the looking glass people.  Despite Gargy’s astute observations on their vaunted new defence, it has done bugger all in the preseason so far.  And they will be sorely tested – away to the 49ers, Jets, Falcons, Panthers and Pats (could go 0-5 but I will give them 2-3) and at home to the Bills, Dolphins, Buccs, Cowboys and Saints (3-2 at best).  So they are every chance to pick up 5 wins or less outside the division, meaning they have to go 4-2 against divisional rivals on a best case.  Possible, but I am going to go out on a limb and say get on the Unders people.  $2.20 is a gift.

I’ve had my share of frustrations with the Lions, and Gargy is right to point out that their underachieving nature frustrates me.  This is not going to be the year that I predict they will correct that – I have done it before and been burned…but…last year they were 7-5 after 13 rounds coming off a big win against the Packers into a very winnable final stretch – the Eagles, Ravens, Giants and Vikings.  Somehow they managed to lose all of them and go out the back door in divisional calculations.  So the question is, is Matt Stafford capable of getting it done when it matters.  Buggered if I know, but he is not getting any more of my money to find out. By all means, get on the overs, but know that in doing so you are putting your testicles in a vice and giving this guy permission to turn the handle;

Matthew+Stafford+2012+ESPY+Awards+Press+Room+0ImG4yzhexDl

And that brings us to the Vikings.  Rookie coach, Rookie QB, a schedule that reads Rams (away), Pats (home), Saints (away), Falcons (home), Packers (away), Lions (home).  And that’s just the first 6 weeks.  They are going to be 0-6 and a bit short on confidence come round 7 you’d reckon.  Unders is looking like a decent bet.  And if you’re a Viking fan, my guess is that after those first 6 games you might be turning off the football, sitting in a darkened room away from any sharp objects, and listening to a bit of this;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_a46WJ1viA

Can I get a Whoop Whoop!

Guess what guys?? We’re back!! Pelican Punting 2014 – Bigger and Better than ever! Which is to say, we’re exactly the same, with slightly fewer followers and slightly more likely than not to disappoint on last year’s efforts – we are the New York Jets of NFL Blogging!

For those who didn’t follow us last year and may have randomly stumbled across our blog whilst searching for information about the nesting habits of Pelecanus Onocrotalus, we are a couple of guys who love betting and love the NFL; Shirty, a belligerent pessimist prone to random, poorly thought through outbursts against just about anything, and Gargy, a smurf chasing eternal optimist who hasn’t let his terrible NFL punting record deter him from creating a blog dedicated to NFL punting.

We have been in a punters club together for over a decade, betting on anything (no literally, anything), but we found that the only sporting knowledge we had which was vaguely ahead of most of our fellow Australians was in the NFL, so we decided to share our knowledge and insights through a blog read by as many as 6 people. AS well as haphazardly blogging, we have run an NFL punters club with a few mates for 3 years and have collected every year (even Jacksonville manages to win a few each season).

In the lead up to kick off of the official NFL Season (pre-season games got underway this weekend for those following along at home) we will be doing a couple of things;

1. Shirty is going to provide a “Guide to Picking which NFL Team to Support” just as soon as he figures out a catchier name for it. This should prove invaluable for all of you out there who want to take their NFL interest to the next level, but who don’t know how to tell a Viking from a Buccaneer; think a Buffallo BIll is a delicious icy treat with a bubblegum nose; or worry that googling 49’er might get them fired.

2. We’ll also give you a bit of an insight into some of the key things to know about the NFL if you are going to be anything more than a casual supporter. Mostly, this will involve small, easily remembered lines that you can trot out at parties to give people the impression you know what you are talking about, but which have little or no actual meaning (e.g. “The problem with Tony Romo is that he is Tony Romo”)

3. Finally, we are also going to do our yearly break down of the 8 divisions, make a few predictions and hopefully help our cadre of dedicated readers make a little money, or at least provide you with ammunition to abuse us in the comments section (seriously, we would welcome whatever you’ve got – we are very much of the “any feedback is good feedback” school of blogging).

As always, Gargy will do the stats and figures and provide some proper and thoughtful analysis, while Shirty will provide the razor sharp wit and brevity that will generally be light on substance or usable tips (we will leave it to you to figure out who wrote this intro).

So lace up your shoulder pads, pull on your uniform, buckle your helmet , making sure your face guard complies with regulations, insert your orthodontically fitted mouthguard….and let’s play some football!

The Draft – Game of Thrones Style

“The more people you love, the weaker you are…Love no one but your children”  Cersei Lannister.

Shirt:  Well, here we are folks.  Draft fever has well and truly taken hold.  In a few hours time we’ll be watching very well paid men read out the names of soon to be extremely well paid men, alongside the name of the team that will be doing the paying.  Riveting stuff.  My objection to the whole “draft as an entire season in itself” phenomenon is well documented (see my thought provoking previous post here), but I’m pleased to say that a throw away line in a footnote of said post has led to something infinitely more interesting (after several hours of hard,  and probably mostly unread work).  And as sure as winter is coming (unless I have grossly misjudged our readership, and the weather), I think it will be a huge hit.  Possibly even an internet sensation.  So, without further ado, sheath your Valerian steel sword, put your feet up on your direwolf fur covered footstool, and…

49565829

 

 

THE RULES

The rules are (relatively) simple.  I have identified the 12 families that I consider the most central to the Game of Thrones universe*.  I have ranked these families in order of their current level of fortune, based on the most recent episode of the TV series, with those high up the order in need of the most help.  As you will see, to keep things interesting, I have taken some poetic license with the definition of “family”.  Sue me.  The ranking will determine their order in the draft.  Next, in keeping with the notion that NFL draftees are young college players, each house is required to put forth their youngest (living) member as a draftee.  Each draftee will then potentially end up in another family.  Or something.  We take the draftees as we find them – just as with an NFL draftee who must make it on his own without the players and coaching staff he had at his disposal in college, so too will our draftees leave any titles or achievements behind them.  They may take with them what they can carry, and any ancillary pets and such like (Direwolfs, Dragons…). If they are currently king, king will they be no more.  They must forge their own lives  in the furnace of their new families, letting their actions speak for themselves.

THE FAMILIES (in draft order)

Pick 1.  House Tully.  A controversial selection for the number 1 pick perhaps (“what about the Starks” I hear the nerds cry) but I’m sorry, last year’s Houston Texans would give these guys a touch up.  Their patriarch, dead.  His tough-as-old-boots daughter**, dead.  His brother, the Blackfish, missing, presumed dead.  His son,  imprisoned, probably better off dead.  To see one of the great houses of the Seven Kingdoms reduced to this is as a sad as watching one of my picks for last season’s Superbowl implode into irrelevance .  Pick 1 with a bullet.

Pick 2.  House Stark.  See, settle down, they get in at pick 2.  And the Lord of Light knows they could use a break.  After riding high in the first season, with a trip to the capital to be Hand of the King, and a veritable keep full of fit and healthy children, things could hardly have looked better.  But, as everyone will tell you as soon as you so much as mention GOT, Winter Is Coming, and in the case of the Starks, it has well and truly arrived.

Pick 3. The Night’s Watch.  Ok, not technically a family, I’ll grant you, but they may as well be – once you join up, you’re a member for life, whether you like it or not.  And they call each other Brother.  And they are the only thing standing between the Seven Kingdoms and a very very cold couple of millennia.  They deserve their spot in the draft, and being a rag tag bunch of cutthroats, rapists and assorted detritus, they could sure use some help.

Pick 4. House Greyjoy.  The proud salty Greyjoys, all frowns and uprisings against the throne, and boats and stuff.  But they’ve had a rough go of it of late.  Routed by the Boltons, bereft of an heir, their most competent member a…gulp…woman (which, lets face it, doesn’t get you far in Westeros) the Ironborn have seen better days.   Could a canny selection in this year’s draft see their fortunes restored?  Time will tell.

Pick 5. House Baratheon (Stannis).  Poor old Stannis looks more and more like an impetuous child who is being denied his favorite toy.  I want the Iron Throne and I want it NOW!  Has been relying on some questionable advice for some time, and his decision making has not been a strong point of late.  Could do anything.

Pick 6. House Arryn.  The Lords of the Eyrie and keepers of the Vale.  Not to mention completely bonkers.  They have a potential new play caller in town in the form of Littlefinger, who you’d have to think will be handed the reins for draft selection and will no doubt choose wisely.

Pick 7.  House Targareyen.  If there was one family in this list dependent on one individual for their get up and go, it has to be the once mighty Targarayens.  And now she’s in the draft.  What can the dragons do to make up for the loss of their most valuable member?  Hang around and hope she has gone unpicked in the first 6 rounds (fat chance).

Pick 8. House Bolton.  The Boltons – second only to the Freys in their lack of honor and ability to put personal gain ahead of all else.  Roose is no goose – a strong leader who has built a game plan around stabbing people in the back, you can’t help but think he has ambitions for the big prize, and the sooner the better.

Pick 9.  House Frey.  Ah Walder Frey.  What a knob.  As if breaking the guest code and killing Rob Stark, his wife, his unborn child and his mother wasn’t enough, he has also almost single handedly secured the North for the Lannisters.  A man without honour is no man at all.  Said someone in the show at some point I’m pretty sure.  And if they didn’t, they should have.  However, for all the fact that the Freys are hated in the Seven Kingdoms only slightly less than the New York Jets, they find themselves in a considerably better position than the Jets in terms of their fortunes.

Pick 10. House Tyrell.  What can you say about the Tyrells – opportunistic, sure.  But, credit where credit’s due (and credit is due almost entirely to Olenna Redwyne, Margaery’s Grandmother) they know what they want and they know how to get it.  And despite horse trading their children at every opportunity, they are also fiercely protective of them, even prepared to commit a bit of regicide to keep them safe.  Hugely wealthy and in bed with the Lannisters, they are currently flying high.

Pick 11.  House Baratheon (Robert).  Look, I know, other than the handful of black haired bastards not killed off by the Goldcloaks, there technically isn’t anything of Robert’s line left.  But according to the laws of the kingdom, a Baratheon, and a son of Robert, currently sits astride the throne.  And his Sister is in Dorne.  Or somewhere.  So we are going to ignore their (obviously) Lannister blood, and say welcome to the draft to the Baratheons.

Pick 12. House Lannister.  What needs to be said about the Lannisters.  They are they New England Patriots of Westeros (except in the coaching staff – Tywin wouldn’t be caught dead in a hoody).  And they certainly don’t need any help from the draft to improve their fortunes (but you just know they are going to get something out of it, right…)

THE DRAFTEES
(with their current houses in brackets)

Edmure Tully (House Tully).  Poor old Edmure.  He wasn’t much of a man when he had a sword in his hand.  A bit of a bungler, with none of the vision and spirit of his uncle or sister.  Now that he’s been married off to a Frey (admittedly an attractive one) and imprisoned only the gods know where, its fair to say his draft stocks aren’t exactly soaring.

Rickon Stark (House Stark). I know that plenty of people wanted Bran to make himself available for the draft, but frankly, the 3 eyed crow needs him, and besides, according to the rules (which I literally made up) it’s the youngest member who goes in.  So Rickon it is.  I’m sure he’s got something going for him?  Maybe we’ll throw in Osha, his adopted Wildling mother-aunt, who kicks ass, to sweeten the deal.

Jon Snow (Night’s Watch).  Ok, so he probably isn’t, technically speaking, their youngest member, but he’s Jon Freaking Snow FFS.  Screw the rules.  If I can put the Night’s Watch in as a family, I can sure as shit make Jon Snow a draftee. He has Longclaw, a Direwolf, a bag full of honor and a whole lot of attitude. Can’t see him slipping outside the top few picks.

Theon “Reek” Greyjoy (House Greyjoy).  Oh dear Theon.  He was a proud lad once, arrogant and full of himself, until the harsh realities of life (a series of flayings and having his cock chopped off and sent to his Dad) brought him crashing back to earth.  For all of his faults, I didn’t mind him when he was…all there (cough cough) but the poor benighted creature he has become is a terrible thing to behold.  I suspect he has about as much chance as Tim Tebow of making it in the big leagues.

Shireen Baratheon (House Baratheon – Stannis).  A bit of n unknown quantity, this one – the first of our ladies, and a young one at that, but I can’t help but think she is a girl of hidden depths and strength.  She’s certainly clever, if a tad naive, having taught Sir Davos to read (although she’s done nothing to rid him of his ridiculous accent).  She’s a girl who knows her own mind with a big future in front of her, and would be a solid addition to any family.

Robyn Arryn (House Arryn).  Ugh.  One of the creepiest characters on the whole show, the breast suckling, flight obsessed little Arryn brat is anything but noble.  Oh sure, it’s not his fault his mother has spoilt him rotten, and living up there in the Vale has got to get to you after a while, but man, I would push the kid out the moon door as soon as look at him.

Danaerys Targareyan (House Targareyan).  Royal blood, check.  Good looks, check.  Experience in war, check. Ability to birth dragons and survive fire, check, check, check.  This girl has got it going on.  Her dragons go with her (of course) and she will no doubt set whatever family she joins on fire.  Shut up.

Ramsay Snow (House Bolton).  Ah Ramsay.  Technically not a Bolton (yet), but 110% a bastard.  In the creepy stakes, this bloke makes Robyn Arryn look like Aaron Rodgers**.  Off the charts weirdo with a penchant for skinning people alive, cutting off their private parts and turning them into, well, whatever Reek is.  Having said all of that, every team needs it’s bad guy, and you can’t help but think, in the right family, he could make a big impact.

A Frey (House Frey).  I don’t even care who the Frey’s send to the draft to be honest.  It may be the youngest kid, but who’d know.  The bloke has more wives and children than Craster, and less decorum.  It’s unlikely Walder would send in the right kid anyway, so we’ll just take whichever one he decides to get rid of.  No one trusts the Lord of the (Double) Crossing.

Margaery Tyrell (House Tyrell).  Ooh lala.  Oh sure, her eyes are a bit too far apart*** but Margaery Tyrell is one hot widow queen.  Without giving anything away, like most of the child characters, she is much younger in the book, so just be grateful the show’s creators had the common sense to up her age in the name of decency, so she could wear less clothing, and we could feel less guilty and weird.

Tommin Baratheon (House Baratheon – Robert).  I like Tommin.  For a child of incest sitting astride a throne he does not deserve, he’s actually seems pretty cool.  He has none of the homicidal tendencies of his brother, he seems willing to listen to his advisers.  Hell, he even likes cats.  What does that make him without the Iron Throne?  A cat loving bloke with a bowl haircut and a snowflakes chance in hell of surviving 5 minutes in the big, bad world.  He is potentially the Johnny Manzial of the GOT Draft.

Tyrion Lannister (House Lannister).  Ha!  You see what I did there.  By going with the “official” story that Tommen is a Baratheon (rather than the ill begotten spawn of his Father-Uncle and Mother-Aunt), I was able to throw everyone’s favorite four foot joke machine into the mix as the youngest Lannister.  An insatiable appetite for booze and sex, a foul mouth and a tendency to get himself locked up, Tyrion is perhaps more like a typical NFL Draftee than anyone else on our list.  To top it off, his name is Tyrion Lannister.  Can you seriously tell me that you can’t imagine the draft announcer going “With the 5th pick of the 2014 draft, the Oakland Raiders select Tyrion Lannister”.  And no one would bat an eyelid.

THE DRAFT

With Pick 1, House Tully selects…Tommin Baratheon!  This is massive – an upset with the first pick.  The obvious early money was on Danaerys and her Dragons.  There was even some talk that they might opt for Rob Arryn out of family loyalty, or even pick Edmure under the misconception that he was not a complete git.  But no!  The Tully’s have once more proven why they, of all the Great Houses, have fallen so low.  They’ve failed to read the rules, thinking that by picking up Tommin they would also get the Iron Throne.  Sorry Fishface, you only get the draftee and what they can carry.  Bzzzt.

With Pick 2, House Stark selects…Jon Snow.  And well they should.  This is a great selection from a family with a proud history that, but for losing their QB to a nasty neck injury early in the season, wouldn’t be anywhere near this high in the draft order.  Snow is a very sensible pick – he knows how the Starks play, and he should slot right in.  He is just the man to recapture Winterfell, and get the family back on its feet.

With Pick 3, the Night’s Watch selects…Danaerys Targaryen.  Very solid pick, and you can’t help but think there was perhaps some collusion here between the Starks and the Watch, with the Starks passing on the chance to pick up a strong leader and the Mother of Dragons.  But the Stark family know how important defending the Wall is (without the Wall, there is no Iron Throne to play for) and they know the Men in Black will need all the help they can get.  What better way to deal with some ice demons than with a bit of dragon’s fire, bitches!  I can’t imagine Danaerys is going to be over the moon about a move to the Wall, particularly after lazing about in the tropics for the last few years, but it couldn’t be any worse than getting picked up by Green Bay.

With Pick 4, the Greyjoys select….Ramsay Bolton.  Here’s a turn up for the books.  The Greyjoy’s have ignored the opportunity to trade up for a quality leader, and have instead gone the revenge option.  You can’t help but think that Ramsay is in for a rough trot in the new family, particularly from Yara.  You get the feeling he is likely to be benched from day one and will be lucky to see any game time (and by benched, I mean literally strapped to a bench, and by lucky to see any game time, I mean drowned.  Repeatedly.)

With Pick 5, Stannis Baratheon selects…Theon Greyjoy.  Oh wow, the surprises just keep coming.  Stannis seems to be thinking strategically, as usual – but as usual, he’s a bit behind the 8 ball.  He has no doubt ignored some very sensible advice from his Hand and gone it alone, possibly with the fire woman whispering in his ear.  The plan seems to have been to try and make use of Greyjoy’s strong sailing game, hoping that the young man would bring his father’s much feared navy to his cause.  But alas, he didn’t bank on Theon being such a (literally) cockless mess.  I can’t see him getting much out of the new look Reek this season or beyond.  A terrible miscalculation from an administration infamous for its poor decision making.

With Pick 6, House Arryn selects…Rob Arryn.  Well, no surprises here.  At first blush, pundits may be surprised that the family would pick back up their own inept progeny to carry on the family name, but when you realise that Lysa is still calling the shots, it makes perfect sense.  Clearly Littlefinger would have made a different decision (you get the feeling he would join me in pushing the kid, and his mother, out the moon door if given half the chance) but what with Rob still…partial to the maternal teat…Lysa was never going to let the kid out of her sight for more than a day, two tops.

With Pick 7, House Targareyen selects…Margaery Tyrrell.  Hmm.  Poor selection here I think, given who is left on the table.  I think the Tagareyen’s have reverted to type here and gone for form over substance, assuming they could replace one flaxen haired beauty with another.  But alas, while Margaery knows her way around court, and has been know to stroke the odd pussy, she ain’t no mother of dragons.  I just can’t see the Targareyen resurgence of recent times continuing with her under centre.

With Pick 8, House Bolton selects…Tyrion Lannister.  Oh you devious bastard Roose.  Probably the only family selecting in the draft capable of seeing past Tyrion’s faults to his brilliance, Bolton has in one fell swoop removed his biggest liability (his bastard) and installed a man capable of contributing more than man parts and bits of other people’s skin to the family cause.  Tyrion won’t necessarily like it, but if Bolton can get him to stay sober and commit, you can see them being champions in the North for a long time to come.

With Pick 9, House Fr….no wait.  News just in that House Frey has traded away its pick to the Lannisters!  Frey will be picking at 12.  Sneaky, double crossing bastards… With Pick 9, House Lanniser selects…Rickon Stark.  Now, I don’t hate this.  Well, I do for Rickon’s sake, obviously, but I can see where they are coming from. They have lost Sansa Stark, who still had some value to them in helping to subdue the North.  They now have a legitimate heir (albeit second in line) to House Stark, and a descendant of the last true King in the North.  You could even see a marriage here to what’s her name who is currently hanging out in Dorne.  Although, technically, she’s a Baratheon.

With Pick 10, House Tyrrell selects…Shireen Baratheon.  Interesting selection, and pleased to see that she has not gone last as she has plenty of raw potential.  I suspect Olenna sees this, and hopes to take her under her wing.  Certainly not a first year player, but she will hopefully flourish in the picturesque and wholly unfamiliar surrounds of the Reach, which, I’m told, is lovely this time of year.  Got to love a good news story!

With Pick 11, House Baratheon selects…Edmure Tully.  Oh well, there were limited options here for the Baratheons.  It is an uninspiring selection from a tough position.  And I may be underestimating Tully – with a new wife in tow (he can carry her), out of the shadow of his father and in some fresh surrounds (i.e. not a dungeon) he may do well.  I’m warming to this selection more and more. And as a bonus, he now gets to be King.  I think.

With Pick 12, House Frey selects….The Frey kid.  Which, for all we know, is exactly what the old git was planning all along.

So there you have it, that’s it from the Minstrel Alley Music Hall in beautiful Kings Landing – the GOT Draft done and dusted for another year.  Lots of drama, a couple of real surprises, and plenty to look forward to in the season ahead.  We’d love to hear your thoughts and comments (assuming they are all positive).  Thank you and goodnight!


* I am deliberately sticking to the TV series here – no book related spoilers, and the importance of families/characters is based solely upon their expositions in the show.  On the subject of reading the books vs watching the TV show, it saddens me that we have become so intellectually challenged that it is considered perfectly legitimate, even culturally superior, to ignore a written version of a story in favor of the televised one.  By all means, don’t read a book, but don’t make out like choosing to ignore the book in favor of watching it on TV is a form intellectualism. 

**  Am I the only person who finds Catelyn Stark sexy

*** I actually feel really bad for saying that.  Who am I to say her eye’s are too far apart.  Apparently mine are sunken.  But I’m not the only one who thinks so – there is an entire webpage dedicated to identifying actresses who’s eyes are too far apart (Natalie Dormer, who plays Margaery, is #22).  And if that don’t convince you that this world is as least as fucked up as Westeros, nothing will.

**** He’s the least creepy NFL player I could think of.  To be honest, I have a bit of a man crush on Aaron Rodgers.  He’s just got his shit going on – smart, funny, kick ass pocket passer capable of running when necessary.  He’s a dreamboat.

The NFL Draft – The Most Overhyped Event of the Year?

Shirty:  Firstly, it’s great to be back after a long absence.  I didn’t even see out the end of last season so paralyzed was I with shame given some of my picks (Texans to win their division and maybe make the SB cough cough).  Let us never speak of it again.  And if anyone does, know this – I’ve read all of the Song of Ice and Fire books, and will start posting Game of Thrones spoilers on here on a weekly basis.

So, to 2014 and the highly-anticipated-by-everyone-except-me NFL draft.  I have been copping a bit of flack from my curly headed, smurf chasing co-conspirator and our reader (singular) to muck in and contribute to the Mock Draft.  But alas, I just can’t get excited about trying to guess what some crazy ass billionaire and his equally bonkers management staff will do.  It’s such a crap shoot, and the net benefit of actually getting it right is precisely zero.  Speculating on who is going to be a good fantasy player – potential positive impact on people’s fantasy teams.  Speculating on who will win divisions and matches this year – potential positive impact on people’s punting returns.  Speculating on who’s going to get picked when in the draft – no impact on anyone except the author who is then able to say “I (and everyone else in the known universe) told you Clowney would go at 1.”

To be honest, the whole draft process strikes me as a little – off.  You’ve got a bunch of old rich dudes fawning over a bunch of young fit men – making them compete in competitions of speed and strength, testing their fitness, “evaluating” them.  Apparently GM’s and owners are inclined to become “smitten” and “enamored” with a particular prospect*.  Meanwhile the common folk rank and rate them and try and guess who will pick who.  It’s all a bit slavers of Yunkai for mine (to carry on the GOT theme**…)

The other thing that strikes me about the draft, and in particular about trying to pick how things are going to develop, is that, by definition, you are trying to guess the decisions of largely incompetent decision makers.  Let me explain.  If your team is high in the draft order, its generally going to be there because the team’s owner and its management have traditionally done a poor job of selecting talent (this is particularly true of the perennial high drafters – Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, I’m looking at you).  They have made poor decisions in the past.  The most likely outcome is that history will repeat and they will continue to make poor decisions in the future.  Occasionally you get a good team popping up at the top of the order (Indy in 2011 being the obvious example, who’s position was an aberration, quickly corrected) but generally, a team picking high is picking high for a reason, and often that reason is shitty personnel decisions

The sooner the whole thing is over the better.  We should be moving on to more important matters like speculating on who is going to be the first draftee to hit the free trade list, and who is most likely from this years class to end up on a list like this.

 

*Interesting tid bit.  Derek’s older brother David was the first draft pick ever taken by the Houston Texans in their inaugural draft in 2002.  Unfortunately, he was thrust into the starting slot behind the worst O-Line in the NFL (think of the beating Archie Manning copped with the Saints and triple it) and turned out to be an absolute bust.  This leads me to make the only confident prediction for this year’s draft – the Texans will not select a QB with the first pick.

** Speaking of GOT, I am seriously considering doing a Game of Thrones Mock Draft.  Hear me out.  The (currently living) children of each of the high born families go into the draft, and are then drafted into new families. The draft order of the families is determined by how crappy I think the family’s fortunes are currently (according to the latest TV episode, not the books, cool your jets).  The more I think about it the more I think this is a brilliant idea, and the sort of shit I would do every day but for the fact that I need to maintain paid employment.  In fact, it is such a good idea that I can’t shake the feeling that Grantland has either already done it or will do it before I get around to it – in which case, you heard it here first!

NFL Mock Draft Ver 2.0

Gargy- Given version 1.0 was such a big hit, I thought I would revise- and so here we have Mock draft v 2.0

#1 Texans – Jadeveon Clowney DE. Previously I had the Texans taking Bortles, now I cant see it happening. They are not giving up Clowney, they could draft McCarron or maybe even Carr if they drop to 33. But in summary the Texans are not letting him go.

#2 Falcons (Rams) Khalil Mack DE- Previously I had Mack at 6 with the Falcons, I think they simply trade up and get the next best pass rusher, as he doesn’t get to 6, I dont think he gets past 3 in the event the Rams cant find a trade partner.

#3 Jags Sammy Watkins WR. He is the best receiver in the draft and while they could use a QB,they cant pass on Watkins.

#4 Browns Jonny Football QB. He is the best QB in the draft, the Browns need a QB badly and they will draft Manzel.

#5 Raiders Jake Mathews OT I don’t think the difference between Mathews and Robinson is much, I am leaning towards Mathews, although a trade down wouldn’t surprise, but with the 4 above players gone, I am not sure which team will want to trade up.

#6 Rams- Greg Robinson OT, if the Raiders take Robinson, lock in Mathews

#7 Tampa Mike Evans WR. No change-Another great WR who is big, fast with good hands. Josh McCown needs a good target to throw to, Mike Evans is that guy

#8 Vikings Blake Bortles QB, Previously I had Bridgewater and I have previously let you know I am not sold on Teddy B. Bortles is a great passer, a big QB and he will compete vs the ordinary Christian Ponder at the Vikings training camp.

#9 Bills Eric Ebron TE. 6-4 250 pounds, who is fast and a good blocker, he is the best TE in the draftPreviously Greg Robinson.

#10 Lions Ha Ha Clinton Dix S. The lions too would love Mike Evans (or Watkins) and may even try and trade up to make a play to give Megatron a partner in crime at wide receiver but that would be crazy, stupid in fact. They need a safety and Ha Ha and Calvin Pryor are both upgrades to their 2013 line up, they should take Clinton Dix.

#11 Titans Anthony Barr OLB. Barr has been touted a great OLB who is capable of rushing the passer. I have watched a few snippets and personally I don’t see it, I think there are better pass rushers in the draft, but they got him in for a workout and they do need help- so they will pick him.

#12 Giants Zach Martin G Previously had Ebron, but the G Men have to keep Manning healthy, he got hit way too many times last year

#13 Rams Justin Gilbert. CB No change- They need a CB and a S, Gilbert is a good CB who is physical and will fit in with them nicely.

#14 (Dolphins) Taylor Lewan OT. Trade up. There is 4 offensive tackles who will go in round 1 and I think the Dolphins really wanted Martin, when they see him off the board and only Lewan remaining-they will no option other than to trade up.

#15 Steelers Darqueze Dennard CB. No change- the Steelers need upgrades at several positions and CB is one of those areas.

#16 Cowboys CJ Mosely LB, No Change- can defend the pass, plus rush is generally a valuable player, the cowboys will be rapt is still on the board at 16

#17 Ravens Calvin Pryor S, No Change.Pryor is a banger and the Ravens safeties need an upgrade; the top two safeties are the clear picks above the rest and I think they will both go fairly quickly

#18 Jets Odell Beckham, previously Brandon Cooks WR. The Jets need a Wide receiver and Beckham in my opinion is the 3rd best WR in the draft. The Jets need a WR, given that they will probably draft a running back..LOL

19# Bears Aaron Donald DT. No change  The bears need a CB and a S, however good defences start up front and they will nab Donald, who is a good defensive Tackle. I think they will be able to grab the defensive backs in later rounds as there appears to be lots of options.

Only doing the top 19, finally here are a few things that will happen in the draft-

-       Pats Trade back- they always do

-       Clowney goes #1

-       Mack goes #2

-       Jonny Football will be the first QB and I really think he lands at the browns

-       Watkins is the first WR taken (wow what a scoop you say) Evans 2nd Beckham goes 3rd

-       3 QB’s go in the 1st round

-       Unless the Jets have a brain fade, no Running backs go in round 1

-       7 WR’s go in the first round

NFL Mock Draft Ver 1.0

Gargy- Hey guys, I started this on a plane to Bali a couple of week ago- trying to kill some time. Here is my Mock NFL Draft, hope you enjoy.

#1 Jaguars (Texans) – Jadeveon Clowney DE. If the Texans like Jadeveon Clowney – they draft him, at #1.next, however I think they want Blake Bortles, therefore they could get a few extras picks to slide down 2 spaces and still get their man Bortles.

#2 Rams- Jake Mathews OT. Now if the Texans take Clowney, the Rams will select Jake Mathews as he is the best OT in the 2014 draft class, however if the Texans simply take Bortles straight off the board at #1, the Rams will trade out and someone will trade up and Clowney will go at #2 and that will be the Atlanta Falcons. Lock it in- Clowney goes at either #1 or #2- find a market and bank it.

#3 Texans- Blake Bortles QB. Personally Like I Jonny Football better as the best QB in the draft, but Bortles is the “safer option”. The Texans need a QB and they will take Bortles.

#4 Browns- Sammy Watkins WR. He is the best receiver in a very deep class and whoever is under the gun for the browns in season 2014 will have some great targets to throw to.

#5 Raiders Jonny Football QB. While they just picked up Schuab in free agency, they need a QB long term and Manzel is that guy. Good passer, excellent runner a younger Mike Vick!

#6 Falcons Khalil Mack DE. Excellent pass rusher and the falcons desperately need assistance in that area

#7 Tampa Mike Evans WR. Another great WR who is big, fast with good hands. Josh McCown needs a good target to throw to, Mike Evans is that guy

#8 Vikings Teddy Bridgewater QB. Personally I don’t like Teddy B, I think he has bust written all over him, but the Vikings need a QB, he the best available so they will take him, but they will be looking for a QB in the 2015 draft after they go 5 & 11 in season 2014.

#9 Bills Greg Robinson OT. The Bills need a WR and a Right Tackle, I am leaning towards the tackle, but another receiver wouldn’t surprise and if Evans is available he doesn’t get past selection 9 as he will be their back up selections

#10 Lions Ha Ha Clinton Dix S. The lions too would love Mike Evans (or Watkins) and may even try and trade up to make a play to give Megatron a partner in crime at wide receiver but that would be crazy, stupid in fact. They need a safety and Ha Ha and Calvin Pryor are both upgrades to their 2013 line up, they should take Clinton Dix.

#11 Titans Anthony Barr OLB. Barr has been touted a great OLB who is capable of rushing the passer. I have watched a few snippets and personally I don’t see it, I think there are better pass rushers in the draft, but they got him in for a workout and they do need help- so they will pick him.

#12 Giants Eric Ebron TE. 6-4 250 pounds, who is fast and a good blocker, he is the best TE in the draft and I expect him to go with the Giants

#13 Rams Justin Gilbert. CB They need a CB and a S, Gilbert is a good CB who is physical and will fit in with them nicely.

#14 Bears Aaron Donald DT. The bears need a CB and a S, however good defences start up front and they will nab Donald, who is a good defensive Tackle. I think they will be able to grab the defensive backs in later rounds as there appears to be lots of options.

#15 Steelers Darqueze Dennard CB. the Steelers need upgrades at several positions and CB is one of those areas.

#16 Cowboys CJ Mosely LB, any LB who can defend the pass, plus rush is generally a valuable player, the cowboys will be rapt is still on the board at 16

#17 Ravens Calvin Pryor S, Pryor is a banger and the Ravens safeties need an upgrade; the top two safeties are the clear picks above the rest and I think they will both go fairly quickly

#18 Jets Brandon Cooks WR. The Jets need a Wide receiver and cooks is fast, with good hands and will be a starter from day 1 of the 2014 season- welcome to NYC Brandon.

#19 Dolphins Taylor Lewan OT. From the 4 or 5 mock drafts I have seen I don’t think I have seen him going any lower than 15, therefore he is a steal to slide this far down the list ,the Dolphins would not be able to pass on him- their O line needs help after the 2013 dramas.

#20 Cardinals Dee Ford DE. Abraham is about to turn 47 years old, not exactly but he is old, I think they will take a DE and it will either be Ford or Ealy.

#21 Packers Zach Martin OT/G A versatile player and while the packers do have a few needs, an upgrade up front will help keep Aaron Rodgers healthy and upright.

#22 Browns (Eagles) Carr- The eagles only have 6 picks in the NFL draft, they need a WR, an upgrade at safety and OLB, unless they can manufacture a trade with the dolphins to get Dion Jordan, they will trade down and the Browns makes perfect sense. They took Watkins in round 1, and now Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron need a QB to chuck them the ball. Carr is good passer and will fir in well.

#23 Chiefs Xavier Sua Filo G

#24 Bengals Kyle Fuller CB. He isn’t the proto type CB who is big and over 6 foot, but where he lacks in size he makes up for in speed

#25 Chargers Louis Nix. NT. The chargers need a big body that can anchor their 3-4 defence, Nix fits that nicely.

#26 Eagles Need a CB, S and OLB- but will probably select a WR to replace Desean, which would be a waste of a pick.

#27 Saints Kony Ealy OLB. If the Cardinals take Ealy the Saints will take Ford

#28 Panthers WR Odell Beckham, do the Panthers actually have any WR on their roster? I think they either cut or traded them all away, they much take a WR in round 1 and Beckham looks like a good one

#29 Patriots Stephon Tuitt DE. Is a huge body and would require double-teaming which would free up the LB’s to get after the opposing QB

#30 49ers Kelvin Benjamin WR. The NFC West is the best division in football, the 49ers have terrific defence, they need a big receiver who is capable of making a big play and while they have Boldin, Crabtree and others the 6 foot 5 Benjamin will pose a different type of threat.

#31 Broncos Jason Vereet CB, Champ Baily is gone so there is a spot at CB, I have to be honest- I copied this pick from someone else- I have no idea about this dude, Sorry Jason

#32 Seahawks Don’t know, run out of steam, doubt anyone is still reading..