Best in Show

The dogs keep marching on.  The round started with a strong dogs victory, when the Raiders managed their first win of the season, ruining my Thursday Night Football bet in the process.  They then consolidated over the weekend, going 9 and 15 at the line, with 4 outright victories, and it probably should have been worse for the favs with the Chargers and Broncos particularly lucky to get home.  Regular listeners would have noticed that the dogs covered in our two no touchy games (Dolphins v Broncos & Saints v Ravens) while my bet of the week, Pats -7 against the Lions, was one of the few favs that got home comfortably.  Let’s not speak about the Cardinals…

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In terms of reliable teams at the line, our top couple of coverers in the Chiefs and Cardinals both had a dent to their reputations this week, but the Browns and Colts were both solid.  I suspect the Chiefs, currently 1 point underdogs at Denver, might take another hit this week, while the Cardinals are 2.5 point favs at Atlanta and look a decent chance to spring back.

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Happy Punting!

Shirt

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 12 TNF Edition

The great modern day philosophers Chumbawumba once said “I get knocked down, but I get up again, you never going to keep me down” and I think there is an important life lesson there for all of us.  Admittedly, they then went on to a verse about excessive alcohol consumption, pissing the night away, and ending the night in a drunken stupor singing Danny Boy, which frankly was a bit too close to a description of my life at the time for comfort.

Nevertheless, despite the hiccup last week with the Bills v Dolphins prediction, we are presented with another prime opportunity to make money on a Thursday night, and despite getting knocked down last week, it’s time to get back up again.

Going back to our stats that have been covered in the Dogs columns, we have strong indicators of an Unders game (Chiefs have gone under the line 3/10, Raiders 5/10).  The Thursday night game was proving to be a blow out game early in the season, but the last few weeks have been low scoring contests, with a reasonably convincing winner emerging in an otherwise tight game.  Let’s have a look at the performance of these two teams against the spread;

Raiders

Record head to head: 0-10

Record at the line: 4-6.  Covered against the Chargers (+10.5 week 11), Seahawks (+13.5 week 9), Chargers (+7.5 week 6), Jets (+6.5 week 1)

Interestingly for the Raiders, they have started as Underdogs in every game this year with the +3 points they received against the Texans in week 2 the most respect they have been afforded by the bookies all year.

Chiefs

Record head to head: 7-3

Record at the line: 9-1.  Only failed to win at the line once all season when they were upset by the Titans in week 1.  Just let that sink in folks.  After dropping a home game to the Titans in round, they covered in the next 9 (incl a push against the niners) and of those, three have been as favourite. They have also managed a 7-2 record since that first loss, with their only losses coming to the Broncos and Niners on the road.

Make no mistake, they are a good football team.

The Chiefs are building nicely towards the playoffs, and have a real chance to unseat the Broncos, who are looking a tad shaky, at the top of the division if they can keep the run going.  I can’t see Andy Reid letting some rookie coach get the better of him – Chiefs will get it done.

The Bet

The obvious bet here is just to take the Chiefs -6.5 and the Unders 43.5 Double.  You can do so with Sportsbet and get $2.97.  But there are some other interesting alternate lines on there; Chiefs to Win/Under 35.5 ($3.60) if you think it will be an arm wrestle, or if you like the Chiefs to win comfortably, Chiefs -8.5, Under 51.5 is paying $2.56.

Personally I am going to stick solid with the basic line and have a $100 to return $297.  Chiefs to get it done 24-10.

There’s also a nice little prop bet in this game too – take the greatest running back in football at the moment, Jamaal Charles, for over 104.5 Total Yards @ $1.87.  He will get undoubtedly get knocked down but he will most certainly get back up again.

Happy punting!

Shirty.

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 3

That’s right folks, the wait is finally over!  Episode 3 of the Pelican Punting Podcast is live!

In this week’s episode, we recap last weeks gambling efforts (deplorable), run through our likely division winners and try and find a couple of sleepers, discuss the always fraught topic of workplace lavatory etiquette, talk through our best bets for week 12 (this time for sure!) and talk all things Spring Carnival with our very first guest, Bobby C.

Stream the podcast to your earholes by clicking here

 

I’m Telling You, My Dogs Are Barking Today!

 

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Big week for the dogs this week, making a somewhat predictable recovery after a rough couple of weeks – 9/14 dogs covered the spread while 6 of those managed to get the outright win (I thought the Cardinals and the Pats were both gifts, although admittedly I didn’t post that on here…sorry).  Perhaps not surprisingly it was also a week for the Unders betters with 10 of 14 games going under.  The Chiefs were once again the pinup team for covering the spread, and have now got an enviable 9-1 record when backed at the line.  Meanwhile, we saw the Pats start as underdogs for, I would hazard a guess, the very last time this season.

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So what do we make of the dogs in week 12?  Do we stick or switch?  Gargy says stick – the dogs are back and they are barking!

 

Shirt

 

 

MNF- Gargy’s best bet

Howdy punters

 

Not long until MNF kicks off and two last start losers face off; The Steelers are $1.32 head to head at Titans. The Steelers win straight up, so if you’re a girly man take the $1.32 and put whatever cash you have in your wallet (sports betting account) on them and then tonight buy your wife/boyfriend/girlfriend a nice Chinese dinner. I am listening to my own advice and sticking with the team that cost me last week, sticking solid! They were horrific last week, they will be much better against the Titans this week. It wont be easy as the Titans record is poor but I think they are better than their record suggests; their attack is hopeless- they are ranked 31st for yards per game and 30th for scoring points per game, but 20th and 19th in defence for the same categories.

 

We here at PP are tragic punters and never settle on $1.32 pops, so you can take the line of-6.5 @ $1.91 which is slightly more enticing but I believe this game screams of unders, as I am following shirty’s wonderful analysis; where the Titans have only gone overs twice all season.

 

So I am taking the Steelers-5.5/unders 47.5 @ $2.87. The other bet I do like is the Titans to go under 19 points for the match @$1.91 and you could always use this market as a bit of a saver/hedge..

Shirty’s TNF Get ON!

There’ll be a podcast up soon, and some weekly winners for your reading and punting pleasure, but in the meantime, a quick note to declare the Bills a GET ON in TNF starting shortly.  Bearing in mind that;

1. They have dominated Miami over the last few years, sacking Tannehill 13 times in the last 3 games

2.  They won convincingly in the first game against the Fins earlier in the year, 29-10

3. The Dolphins enjoy no real home field advantage (they tend to play better away from Miami)

4.  The Bills need to win this to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot after going 2-4 in the Division to date (OK, so the same rationale could apply to the Dolphins, but I am making a case for Buffalo here, so can it)

5. Two stingy defenses means a low scorer is on the cards (Bills have gone over the line twice all year, the Fins only 4 times).

The bet is therefore Bills +4.5 / Total Points under 42.5.  If you are a girly man, you can play with the lines but you won’t get the fantastic price of $3.08.  $100 on that will set us up for the weekend nicely.

Shirt

Straw Dogs

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I won’t lie to you punters, the Dogs are struggling.  They managed a dismal 4/13 this week, and of those, only the Browns were convincing winners.  The Underdogs were looking strong in the early games but as the day wore on, the Favs awoke from their slumber, and the minnows were torn asunder.  Interestingly this week, there was only 1 dog that won at home,  which, in a rather unfortunate and entirely unintended coincidence, was Michael Vick’s Jets.  And by all rights, the Jets should not have won.  Unfortunately, they have the bye this week, so we miss the chance to bet against them with the line adjusted for their apparent (but illusory) competence.

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So what do we do this week in light of the Dogs poor performance over the last few weeks?  Do we abandon the underdogs to the RSPCA rescue center of punting oblivion? Do we ignore the mutts and instead opt for the sleek, but loveless and aloof feline-like favourites? Of course not – to quote Gargy, we Stick Baby!   Look at some of the dogs this week;

* Bills +6 (at Dolphins) > remember, for the Dolphins there is no such thing as a home field advantage.

* Falcons +1.5 (at Panthers) > Did you see the Panthers last week??

* Vikings +3 (at Bears) > Did you see the Bears last week??

* Raiders +10 (at San Diego) > Division game, and the Chargers still pretty banged up

* Detroit +2 (at Cardinals) > Carson gone, Lions with the best defence in the conference on track for their best season in a generation and finding ways to win in any situation

* Patriots +3 (at Colts) > Can’t you just see Brady taking Luck to school here?

So plenty of juicy dogs on offer.

And here’s something else that’s interesting – a breakdown of the first 10 rounds with teams ranked according to the number of wins at the line, with the last column being the number of times they have gone over the over/under line.  Makes the Vikings look close to bet of the year …

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Come back soon for this week’s Pelican Punting Podcast, which should be up later tonight, when we will find out whether Gargy sustained any serious injuries when the wheels fell off the Steelers bandwagon, and I share my love of all things NBA.

Shirty.

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 10

Well, Gargamel has finally returned from his mysterious juice cleanse getaway (the less said about where the juice goes, the better) and has posted a few bets for our loyal followers.  I’ve got to say, but for the weird innuendo regarding Michael Vick, I like the song he is singing.  There are lots of reasons that the Jets SHOULD lift this week – coach and QB under pressure to keep their jobs (although who they go to after Vick is anyone’s guess), a notoriously fickle fan base that may just give up all together and defect en masse to the Toronto Argonauts if they don’t see some improvement, a Steelers D that is looking pretty banged up, and a home field advantage.  But then again, they are the Jets, so the Steelers -4 seems a reasonable bet.  Unfortunately, Gargy didn’t tell us how much he was having on the Steelers, or on the Titans with their +10, but I do like that he has adopted Zack Mettenberger as his own and thinks he can get the job done.

Me, I am a simpler man.  If I’d been more efficient, I would have written this a couple of days ago when I was telling anyone who would listen that Andy Dalton was on a downward trajectory and to get on the Browns.  What I didn’t predict was that he would reach terminal velocity in Thursday Night’s game and turn in one of the all time worst QB performances of the modern era.  Now, I feel for Andy – he is a fellow Ginger who has had to overcome that stigma to succeed as a professional sportsman, but man did he ever give the Fanta Pants Brigade a bad name on Thursday night.  Horrible.  Bengals are a no bet for the rest of the year, in case there was any doubt. For those who didn’t see the game, check out the ~2 minutes of QB Incompletion Ballet thanks to the folks at SB Nation here.  It is mesmerizing in its awfulness.

My bets for this week then;

I really like the way the Saints looked against the Packers two weeks ago, and whilst they were serviceable if not devastating against the Panthers last week, bear in mind that this was the first road game they’d managed to win all year.  They now kick off a 3 game home stretch against a struggling 9ers team that is playing on the proverbial one leg.  Jimmy Graham is going to have a field day and the Saints win.  They are $1.38 for the win.

The Packers also look like locks at home to the Bears.  I know Gargy has a theory that you try and avoid Division games, but then he has gone and taken Denver at $1.17 so he can shove it.  The Bears have been struggling and I think Rogers will take them apart after having a week to rest up.  $1.31 for the win there.

The Cardinals are at home to the Rams, and whilst the Rams beat the 49ers last week, I could make a really good case that the 49ers beat themselves.  So I am really throwing the division rivalry no bet theory to the dogs and will be rolling in the Cardinals to win at $1.34.

Those three together for $100 will get us a return of $234.  That’ll do nicely.

I think the Jags have a great chance to notch up a win in London against the struggling Cowboys, their home away from home, and the punters agree with me – the money has come at the line, with the +7.5 into $1.79.  Personally, I am not going to jump on as I have missed the boat, but if you like them, I would not discourage you.  I also think the resurgent Dolphins are a big chance in Detroit.

PELICAN PUNTING GOES EARBORNE

Finally, as Gargy mentioned, we have indeed completed our first ever Pelican Punting Podcast (PPP1 for those who like an acronym).  It’ll be up just as soon as I work out how to edit it, turn it into an MP3, and post it somewhere accessible to our dear readers.

In the meantime, here is a clip of animals doing shit that humans do;

Shirt.