Pelican Punting Podcast – SuperBowl Special

Gargy is in hospital, but do you think that is going to stop us doing a podcast for the Superbowl?  Not on your life!  Featuring a special guest appearance from the Puppetmaster, live from the course at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as he gears up for a trip to University of Phoenix stadium tomorrow for the big game.

Stream the podcast by clicking here.

Conference Championship Games – Shirty’s Preview

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner!  Those of you paying attention would have noticed a fantastic return to form for your’s truly last week, when my podcast tip of Packers/Patriots/Colts +10.5 romped home…Ok, so only the Colts leg “romped” while the Packers “limped” and the Patriots “squeeked” home, but screw you, a wins a win and I am BACK baby!

Unfortunately, Gargy and I have not been able to get our respective houses in order to put on a podcast this week (it’s my fault to be frank – Gargy is chomping at the bit) but we will be back with a year in review show and a Superbowl preview in the days leading up to the big game.  We won’t be covering the pro-bowl, because, well, it’s not real football anyway (standard advice applies to the game – bet the overs).

But before we get to the Big Show, we have the conference round to get through, with a resurgent Seattle playing host to the Packers and the Patriots hosting the upstart Colts.  On paper, this looks like a Seattle v Patriots superbowl waiting to happen, and the bookies agree;

Head to Head:
Green Bay $3.75 v Seattle $1.29
Indy $3.22 v Patriots $1.37

Line:
Green Bay (+7.5) $1.94 v Seattle (-7.5) $1.90
Indy (+6.5) $1.95 v Patriots (-6.5) $1.89

Over/Under
GB/Seattle: 46 Points $1.92 each of two
Indy/Pats: Over 53.5 $1.90 / Under 53.5 $1.94

So here’s what I am thinking.  I think we can agree we have the 4 best teams playing off for the conference titles.  The only major upset of the playoffs, I would argue, was Indy knocking off Denver, but in hindsight, the way Manning was (not) playing, maybe that wasn’t such a big upset after all.  Now, I’ve been harping on about the Dogs all year, and I will be posting a column next week to review their overall performance over the course of the year, but why wouldn’t we latch on to the best Dogs of the year here? Yes they are away, and yes, particularly GB has it’s issues with Rogers carrying a niggle, but these teams have been good enough to get here, have QB’s that we know can get the job done, and are getting some serious points in the bargain.

So punters, get on the Dogs, and ride them all the way to the Big Show:

$100 Green Bay +7.5 @ $1.94 – $194
$100 Colts +6.5 @ $1.95 – $195
$50 Colts +6.5 into Green Bay +7.5 @ $3.78 – $189
$20 Colts (win) into Green Bay (win) @ $12.08 – $241.60

Come on you dogs, carry us home!

Now, haters gonna say that the only thing more ridiculous than these bets is this video clip;

But you know what, haters gonna hate.  Tell ‘em Taylor;

Happy Punting!

Shirt

Pelican Punting Podcast – Episode 8

This week we take a look back at the wildcard round and Shirty’s punting (both pretty average),  preview the divisional match ups, and have a chat to our very special guest, Foxsport’s Adam Peacock, who joins us to talk Asian Cup, which according to all reports, kicks off tonight, with Australia taking on the might of Kuwait.

Stream the podcast to your ear holes by clicking here

NFL Division Games- Gargy’s preview

Here we go guys, four great games spread over two days. If anyone thinks they can multi up the 4 home team favourites this weekend- ensure you are it with someone else’s money, there are four great games this weekend but I smell an upset, here I will go through the games so we can make a bit of coin.

Ravens $3.50 at Pats $1.34 (- 7)

Over/Under is 47.5

A great game to start the weekend. A lot of people will say the Ravens match up well with the Pats and even have the wood on the Pats as they have won two of their past 3 games, however newsflash people- games in 2009 when the Ravens had Reed, Rice, Lewis do not count as it was freaking 2009, 5 years ago! This game is won and lost on how well the Pats O-line protects the golden boy Brady and how Suggs, Dhumerval et al pressure Brady. If they get pressure on him they will go a long way to protecting their ordinary secondary and ultimately winning the game. If Brady has time I don’t think there is a better passer of under 15 yards. He threads the needle every time. I think it will be close. I like Flacco as he has the ability to make big plays in big games, Steve Smith is a beast and is always hard to handle and I don’t think there is a better kick off returned than Jacoby Jones. For the pats apart from the no name O-line, it’s the Tom and Gronk show. There is no other player who can determine results like the Gronk. I have got the Pats winning and the game will be unders.

Panthers $5 at Seahawks $1.19 (-10.5)

Over/Under line is 38.5

$1.19 is a horrible price but I just cannot see the panthers winning, I cant. The panthers have great defence and have won 5 games in a row and winning form is good form, but who have they beaten? Last week they beat the Cardinals who put up a massive 78 yards of offence all game, before that wins over the Saints, Bucs, Browns and other cellar dwellers. I know you can only beat what is in front of you, but those teams are bad teams and so don’t be fooled into thinking the Panthers are on a roll. The panthers will have main objective- to Stop Marshawn Lynch from running, the Seahawks offence isn’t as good as last year when they won the superbowl however I would argue that Russell Wilson is playing at a higher level. The Panthers might keep it close for the first two or three quarters, but I feel they get run over the top of. I think Newton will be pressured and will make a HUGE mistake in the 3rd quarter. The Seahawks cover and it goes overs

Dallas $3.20 at Green Bay $1.37 (-5.5)

Over/Under 52

The line opened at 7.5 and is into -5.5 and this is a game where I could potentially see an upset. The Cowboys game plan surely has to be keep Rodgers on the sideline for as long as possible, control the game, dominate the time in possession to protect the defence to keep them away from Rodgers as long as possible. Use Murray as much as possible and don’t allow Romo to throw the ball more than say 25-30 times, it sounds great in theory. Being an Eagles fan I dislike the Cowboys, but there is something different about them this year, Romo doesn’t look like he is going to have a meltdown like he has so many time in the past in December- they seem to know what their game plan is and they don’t change from it. Murray is great whitten is good, Dez is just about the best WR in the game and their defence is actually playing ok. I thought when Lee went down in the off-season they would have the worst defence in the NFL, its no where near the best, but it is a long way from being the worst- can the secondary contain Rodgers? Can they come up with 1 or two really big plays to create a turnover ? I think this will be a really entertaining match. I have it going over and I keep flip-flopping, I think Green bay covers, but that could change tomorrow

Colts $3.47 at Broncos$1.34 (-7)

Over/Under 54

I think another game which has the potential for an upset. Manning is great, he is going to the hall of fame but for me I have this doubt about him. His play for the last 4-6 weeks hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the year, CJ Anderson has come from no where and is killing it, the Thomas’ are going great and their defence is good. They deserve to be favourites but Indy are dangerous. Name your cliché… they are up against Andrew luck who is the best young QB in the game, Indy have a terrible running game but good receivers, its their defence and mainly their secondary which will determine if they can spring the upset.

I think the line of 54 is too high and I think the Colts win which will determine who wins this game.

So there it is- pick which games you like and mesh them together. You cannot have the teams head to head, you need to include a line bet or two and or under/overs lines. My main bet will be Seattle -10.5/overs into Pats winning at $4.10.

 

Good luck

Gargy

NFL BEST BETS- Gargy’s tips

Hello punters
We have made it to the play offs and I have to say I am not all that excited in week 1 of the post season, still I will find ways to make $$$.

Before we break down the games I wanted to see what home field means in the play offs, so I looked back over the past 5 years and excluding the superbowl (which is played at a neutral venue) home teams win around 60% of the time, but If there is a week where the road team win its week 1 of the play offs, as they have won 9/20 matches- which is an ok strike rate.
Home teams have won 14/20 games in week 2- again not surprising as the two top seeds are rested.
For those who want to know what the stats are for the conference championships 6 out of the last 10 home teams won. But for Punters who are thinking of dropping all 4 home teams into a parlay in week 1 of the play offs think again!

Cards ($ 3.42) at Panthers $1.34), Cards +6.5.
The poor Cards cannot take a trick, injuries have really caught up with them and they are now left with Ryan Lindley to lead the team into the play offs and whilst their defence is still good they cannot score points; 17, 6, 6, 14, 18, 3, 14 is what they have scored in the past 7 games.
The Panthers have won 4 games and so that is good form isn’t it? Well lets check who they have beaten- the Falcons, The Brown, The Bucs, The Saints who combined had 22 wins and 46 losses- so winning form is good form, but the teams they are playing are trash. Avoid the line and head to head and have the total score to be under 38.5 points @$1.91

Ravens ($2.47) at Steelers $1.57, Ravens +3.
I think this will be the best game of the weekend as these AFC north rivals know each other very well and match up well against each other. The Steelers will be without Le’vean Bell who was the best running back in the NFL this year and the Ravens welcome back huge unit Heloti Ngata who plugs holes and makes finding running lanes difficult. I think the match up where it all matters is big Ben vs the Ravens (horrible) secondary and ultimately the Steelers will be too strong and will live to fight another day. Take the Steelers head to head $1.57

Bengals ($2.57) at Indy $1.53, Bengals +3.5
I will sum this game up really easily- do you trust Andrew Luck in a play off game? I do. And do you trust Andy Dalton in a play off? Nah me neither. Poor Andy, I would like to see him play well and get the monkey off his back. I said it in the pod cast, I can see the Bengals jumping out of the blocks early, so bet in the run, wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter when the colts are behind and $2.50+ and watch Andy fade and Luck rally for a home win.

Lions ($3.55) at Cowboys ($1.35), lions +6.5
I don’t trust Matthew Stafford, he has soo many weapons available to him and he has been largely disappointing, it’s a shame because being an eagles fan I would love to see the Cowboys get beaten but I just cant see it happening. The lions defence is great and they will challenge Dallas’ excellent O-line and their secondary will compete with Dez, Witten etc.. but at the end of the day I think the Boys will use Murray, and Romo will manage the game well enough to beat the lions. The over/under in this game is 48 and I think it’s a touch too high.

Good luck punters, I hope you find plenty of winners

Pelican Punting Podcast – End of 2014 Edition

Sitting at home alone with nothing to do on New Year’s Eve?  Convinced yourself that NYE is “massively overrated” and you are better off “avoiding the hassle”?  Decided that if you’ve seen one firework you’ve seen them all (but perhaps still made an effort to go out and watch the local ones at 9pm, and will almost certainly turn on the coverage on TV at midnight)?

Well, what better way to farewell 2014 and with it, the NFL regular season, and welcome in the New Year and the Playoffs, than by listening to Gargy and Shirt talk for half an hour!  And while 2014 slips away, you can lie back and think about all of the things you failed to do last year but that you will definitely get on to in 2015, like getting your podcast up on iTunes…

Happy New Year folks!  Stay safe, and stay tuned for more Pelican Punting goodness as we navigate our way towards the Superbowl over the coming weeks.

Listen to the Podcast by clicking this link.

Shirty

NFL Week 17- Gargy’s Best Bets

Hello punters, no Podcast this week, but I did want to tip our listeners into a few winners- now buyer beware!! There are a heap of games which mean absolutely nothing and the perfect example was last week when Indy didn’t turn up and got walloped by Dallas. There are hindsight bets all over the place, so the cash grandma gave you in a card for Christmas- spend wisely on winners in week 17.

 

Nothing games- there are a stack of them but the ones I will highlight is where teams are headed to the play offs

Indy at Titans. Indy are almost guaranteed the 4th spot and will host the loser of the Steelers/Bengals game next, the Titans are either going to finish 31st or 32nd in the event the Bucs upset the dreadful Saints. I wouldn’t be backing either team with Shirty’s money.

Dallas at Redskins- Dallas $1.32, horrendous value for a team with nothing to play for. They are getting a home play off next week, they could get a bye if Seattle get beaten or the packers/Lions game ends in a draw- not happening Avoid!. If they have any sense they rest their starters.

Pats are $1.45 vs Bills, Pats probably don’t want to rest their starters given they have a bye next week, but they don’t want Gronk, Blount or any other major contributors getting hurt- Avoid!

 

The meaningful match ups-

Green bay v Lions. Big game, but it wasn’t flexed to Sunday night, why? Because they probably think the Packers will win and wont be a great game. Lions cant score, but they have good defence. $4.78 or +7.5 at the line.

NFC South winner Panthers at Flacons. Falcons have been ok the last few weeks, but I reckon Cam Newton is looking good. $2.57 is one of the best prices for an outsider this week.

Bengals at Steelers- I hate betting on both teams, The Bengals are off a short week after a huge upset vs the Broncos at home in week 16, the Steelers did what they needed to clinch a play off berth. Its a big match because the loser goes on the road to Indy to face Luck and the Colts in week 1 of the play offs, the winner hosts the banged up Arizona Cardinals which is a very favourable match up. I think the Steelers will be too good and $1.57 is a good price.

Chargers at KC. The Chargers are $2.24 and I know my old mate Shirt loves them and they are a gutsy team. They have had a stack of injuries but keep turning up. $2.24 is good enough for me. If you stop Charles (easier said than done) the Chiefs cannot score. Phil Rivers will get it done and get them into the 6th spot in the AFC.

 

** Guaranteed winners**

The Bucs need to lose to get the #1 draft pick, surely they don’t win. The Saints are $1.52- get on, the Bucs don’t want to win. Stick it in your multi’s.

Seattle is $1.14 head to head and Arizona is not winning this game- include it in your multi’s, don’t get greedy with margins as they may yank their starters in the 3rd or 4th quarters.

The Vikings at home to the bears, the bears announced they were benching Cutler earlier in the week and now due to injury he will be back under centre #awkward, this could be Cutler’s last game for the Bears. $1.37 for the Vikings is skinny, but the team isn’t lifting for Jay and besides the Vikings have been great to the punters over the past month, so we are investing with the bookies cash.

 

So pick the above winners individually if you like, I will take a few multi’s in week 17 and anchor the Saints and Seahawks in all of them-

#1- Saints, Seahawks, Vikings- for a price of $2.37

#2- Saints, Seahawks, Chargers, Panthers- for a price of $10.70

#3 Saints, Seahawks, Chargers, Panthers, Steelers, for a price of $15.75

 

Stay tuned for the return of the Pod next week with a couple of special guests

 

Merry Christmas and happy punting

Gargy

Pelican Punting Podcast – Christmas Edition

Pelican Punting Podcast, Christmas Edition, wherein Gargy and I record a podcast after both consuming a tad too much Christmas cheer.  The result – thankfully not as diabolical as Gargy’s last plane trip.  Click the Podcast link below to get streaming;

Podcast

Merry Christmas all – enjoy the NFL Smorgasboard over the Christmas period – we’ll be back soon to talk you through the playoffs, as we chase our lost fortune after a pretty average season of punting.

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 5 is Live

After an unscheduled break last week, we are back to deliver NFL goodness direct to your vestibulocochlear nerve.  This week’s show includes our pick for the HK International Race Day (Able Friend in the Mile) and our tips for the week (use the PYOL option and take a multi of Raiders +14.5, Texans +10.5, Packers to win for a juicy return of $3.13).  And with that info conveyed here, now you don’t technically need to listen…but do anyway, it’s great.

Pelican Punting Podcast – Episode 5

Reservoir Dogs

Well, our punting might be terrible, but I can still keep posting data here from which we can at least kid ourselves that we might be losing, but we’re losing scientifically godamnit.

First off, our trusty Underdog and Unders/Overs analysis.

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Of note this week (other than the fact I didn’t bother calculating how far off the over/under lines were) was a 50/50 fav/dog split at the line, and a few unexpected over/under results, with both the Pats v Pack and Cowboys v Eagles going under, while Giants v Jags and Ravens v Chargers turned into kind of shootouts and went overs.  The Home teams were also impressive, particularly at the line – of the 5 home dogs this week, an impressive 4 managed to cover, with only the Chiefs letting the side down.

This result brought the Chiefs back to the pack in terms of their success against the spread, with the Cardinals loss also knocking them down a few notches.  The Colts remain a good bet at the line, which I suspect is due to their ability to cover against garbage rather than compete outright against the good teams, while surprisingly the Vikings appear sneaky good on this measure with an 8-4 record against the spread.

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Finally a pie chart (hmmm, pie) on Performing Dogs.  This is a chart splitting the dogs who have won at the line this year (there have been 94 of them from 192 games for a slightly less than 50% overall performance) into those that won at the line, but lost outright, and those that managed to get the outright win to go with their victory at the line.

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This chart tells us what we here at Pelican Punting have been saying all year – if you like a dog, take him head to head and enjoy the extra value.  I haven’t done the maths on the prices, but from the chart above, taking a dog you like for the outright win is a much more lucrative strategy than taking the safety of the points.

Shirt