Pelican Punting Podcast – Christmas Edition

Pelican Punting Podcast, Christmas Edition, wherein Gargy and I record a podcast after both consuming a tad too much Christmas cheer.  The result – thankfully not as diabolical as Gargy’s last plane trip.  Click the Podcast link below to get streaming;

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Merry Christmas all – enjoy the NFL Smorgasboard over the Christmas period – we’ll be back soon to talk you through the playoffs, as we chase our lost fortune after a pretty average season of punting.

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 5 is Live

After an unscheduled break last week, we are back to deliver NFL goodness direct to your vestibulocochlear nerve.  This week’s show includes our pick for the HK International Race Day (Able Friend in the Mile) and our tips for the week (use the PYOL option and take a multi of Raiders +14.5, Texans +10.5, Packers to win for a juicy return of $3.13).  And with that info conveyed here, now you don’t technically need to listen…but do anyway, it’s great.

Pelican Punting Podcast – Episode 5

Reservoir Dogs

Well, our punting might be terrible, but I can still keep posting data here from which we can at least kid ourselves that we might be losing, but we’re losing scientifically godamnit.

First off, our trusty Underdog and Unders/Overs analysis.

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Of note this week (other than the fact I didn’t bother calculating how far off the over/under lines were) was a 50/50 fav/dog split at the line, and a few unexpected over/under results, with both the Pats v Pack and Cowboys v Eagles going under, while Giants v Jags and Ravens v Chargers turned into kind of shootouts and went overs.  The Home teams were also impressive, particularly at the line – of the 5 home dogs this week, an impressive 4 managed to cover, with only the Chiefs letting the side down.

This result brought the Chiefs back to the pack in terms of their success against the spread, with the Cardinals loss also knocking them down a few notches.  The Colts remain a good bet at the line, which I suspect is due to their ability to cover against garbage rather than compete outright against the good teams, while surprisingly the Vikings appear sneaky good on this measure with an 8-4 record against the spread.

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Finally a pie chart (hmmm, pie) on Performing Dogs.  This is a chart splitting the dogs who have won at the line this year (there have been 94 of them from 192 games for a slightly less than 50% overall performance) into those that won at the line, but lost outright, and those that managed to get the outright win to go with their victory at the line.

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This chart tells us what we here at Pelican Punting have been saying all year – if you like a dog, take him head to head and enjoy the extra value.  I haven’t done the maths on the prices, but from the chart above, taking a dog you like for the outright win is a much more lucrative strategy than taking the safety of the points.

Shirt

Monday Night’s A Great Night for Football

Tuesday Lunch time for us Aussie’s is slightly less ideal, but I will give you the tip folks.  If you are a Foxtel subscriber and you have a smartphone, download Foxtel Go, connect yourself to the nearest Wifi hotspot, and you can live stream Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night Football AND NFL Redzone.  It’s a wonderful little distraction from the drudgery of the ordinary working day.

Interesting match up this week, with the Nothing to Play for Other than an Early Draft Pick to Get A Decent QB Jets up against the Miami Dolphins, who realistically must win this game to have a realistic chance of staying in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.  This one is in New York, but the Jets have a notoriously fickle fan base and the Fins travel well, so I don’t expect that to be a problem.  My main issue here is really what to do with the over/under.  My gut says this is a game the Dolphins win on defence, and we’ll be in for a 24-13 sort of game, in which case the Fins -6.5/Under 41.5 @ $3.14 should be a no brainer.  But can’t you just see Tannehill clicking here and putting up a big score?  I’m torn so I have gone for an alternate double market on Sportsbet of -4.5, Under 49.5.  I suggest Pelican Punters get on board;

$100 on Dolphins -4.5, Total Score Under 49.5 to return $200.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks.  I need this.

Shirty

Gargys Best Bets- NFL week 13

Hello folks, I have been picking winners on the podcast, however not writing up on the blog.
Week 13- the best games of the year so far. Aussies do yourself a favour, get on the sauce on Thursday night, call in sick to work on Friday and spend the day on the lounge slightly hungover watching some great games, give yourself a sleep in and miss the bears/Lions game but make sure you watch the Cowboys v Eagles and Niners vs Seahawks- two absolute blockbusters!!!
I think Dallas wins, it is still November and Romo wont fade until December, he is 6 and 1 on Thanksgiving day games- I think they just win. The $1.55 is short but I think they do win and they cover (as hard as that is to say)
The last game of the day is a cracker; Niners vs Seahawks and these teams hate each other, I think it is loser goes home. $1.86 for the niners at home and I think they will be too good for the Seahawks.
The other two great games of the weekend; Pats at Green Bay. The Pats are $2.57 H2H or +3 @$1.91 which is great value. Both teams are great teams and I even at Green Bay I cant bet against Brady, I just cant.
The other great game is Denver at Kansas, Shirt likes the Chiefs, I am going to sit this one out.
Happy punting

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 4 is Live!

A tick over 2 hours to record and upload a 30 minute podcast.  How’s that for an efficiency dividend – take note ABC!

Tune in for a recap of last week and our (mostly) successful bets, a look ahead at a fantastic round over Thanksgiving weekend and a disturbing discussion about Gargy’s predeliction for photographing himself with sticks…

So get comfy, put the earphones in and click on the link below;

PPP Episode 4 

Shirty

Best in Show

The dogs keep marching on.  The round started with a strong dogs victory, when the Raiders managed their first win of the season, ruining my Thursday Night Football bet in the process.  They then consolidated over the weekend, going 9 and 15 at the line, with 4 outright victories, and it probably should have been worse for the favs with the Chargers and Broncos particularly lucky to get home.  Regular listeners would have noticed that the dogs covered in our two no touchy games (Dolphins v Broncos & Saints v Ravens) while my bet of the week, Pats -7 against the Lions, was one of the few favs that got home comfortably.  Let’s not speak about the Cardinals…

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In terms of reliable teams at the line, our top couple of coverers in the Chiefs and Cardinals both had a dent to their reputations this week, but the Browns and Colts were both solid.  I suspect the Chiefs, currently 1 point underdogs at Denver, might take another hit this week, while the Cardinals are 2.5 point favs at Atlanta and look a decent chance to spring back.

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Happy Punting!

Shirt

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 12 TNF Edition

The great modern day philosophers Chumbawumba once said “I get knocked down, but I get up again, you never going to keep me down” and I think there is an important life lesson there for all of us.  Admittedly, they then went on to a verse about excessive alcohol consumption, pissing the night away, and ending the night in a drunken stupor singing Danny Boy, which frankly was a bit too close to a description of my life at the time for comfort.

Nevertheless, despite the hiccup last week with the Bills v Dolphins prediction, we are presented with another prime opportunity to make money on a Thursday night, and despite getting knocked down last week, it’s time to get back up again.

Going back to our stats that have been covered in the Dogs columns, we have strong indicators of an Unders game (Chiefs have gone under the line 3/10, Raiders 5/10).  The Thursday night game was proving to be a blow out game early in the season, but the last few weeks have been low scoring contests, with a reasonably convincing winner emerging in an otherwise tight game.  Let’s have a look at the performance of these two teams against the spread;

Raiders

Record head to head: 0-10

Record at the line: 4-6.  Covered against the Chargers (+10.5 week 11), Seahawks (+13.5 week 9), Chargers (+7.5 week 6), Jets (+6.5 week 1)

Interestingly for the Raiders, they have started as Underdogs in every game this year with the +3 points they received against the Texans in week 2 the most respect they have been afforded by the bookies all year.

Chiefs

Record head to head: 7-3

Record at the line: 9-1.  Only failed to win at the line once all season when they were upset by the Titans in week 1.  Just let that sink in folks.  After dropping a home game to the Titans in round, they covered in the next 9 (incl a push against the niners) and of those, three have been as favourite. They have also managed a 7-2 record since that first loss, with their only losses coming to the Broncos and Niners on the road.

Make no mistake, they are a good football team.

The Chiefs are building nicely towards the playoffs, and have a real chance to unseat the Broncos, who are looking a tad shaky, at the top of the division if they can keep the run going.  I can’t see Andy Reid letting some rookie coach get the better of him – Chiefs will get it done.

The Bet

The obvious bet here is just to take the Chiefs -6.5 and the Unders 43.5 Double.  You can do so with Sportsbet and get $2.97.  But there are some other interesting alternate lines on there; Chiefs to Win/Under 35.5 ($3.60) if you think it will be an arm wrestle, or if you like the Chiefs to win comfortably, Chiefs -8.5, Under 51.5 is paying $2.56.

Personally I am going to stick solid with the basic line and have a $100 to return $297.  Chiefs to get it done 24-10.

There’s also a nice little prop bet in this game too – take the greatest running back in football at the moment, Jamaal Charles, for over 104.5 Total Yards @ $1.87.  He will get undoubtedly get knocked down but he will most certainly get back up again.

Happy punting!

Shirty.

Pelican Punting Podcast Episode 3

That’s right folks, the wait is finally over!  Episode 3 of the Pelican Punting Podcast is live!

In this week’s episode, we recap last weeks gambling efforts (deplorable), run through our likely division winners and try and find a couple of sleepers, discuss the always fraught topic of workplace lavatory etiquette, talk through our best bets for week 12 (this time for sure!) and talk all things Spring Carnival with our very first guest, Bobby C.

Stream the podcast to your earholes by clicking here

 

I’m Telling You, My Dogs Are Barking Today!

 

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Big week for the dogs this week, making a somewhat predictable recovery after a rough couple of weeks – 9/14 dogs covered the spread while 6 of those managed to get the outright win (I thought the Cardinals and the Pats were both gifts, although admittedly I didn’t post that on here…sorry).  Perhaps not surprisingly it was also a week for the Unders betters with 10 of 14 games going under.  The Chiefs were once again the pinup team for covering the spread, and have now got an enviable 9-1 record when backed at the line.  Meanwhile, we saw the Pats start as underdogs for, I would hazard a guess, the very last time this season.

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So what do we make of the dogs in week 12?  Do we stick or switch?  Gargy says stick – the dogs are back and they are barking!

 

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