NFL Week 2- Gargy’s Bets

NFL Week 3

 

Some horrible punting in week 2 and so we move onto week 3 with not as much confidence. There are some really good teams who have started 0-2 and the stats say only 16% of teams make the play offs when they start zero from two. Therefore the Saints, Colts and Chiefs amongst others better win in week 3.

 

So week 3 we are going to keep it simple

Colts win Head to head $1.34-> Saints Head to head at $1.30 X $100 to return $175

 

Shirt will probably disagree with my bet, because in the year of the dog, underdogs are covering lots, but I am taking 2 class teams to beat inferior teams (in my opinion)

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 3

We have had a bit of a rough start the season here at Pelican Punting.  On the plus side, hopefully you got off the Vikings after hearing about Peterson being deactivated last week, and listened to my no touchy tips, with Greenbay only just getting home over the Jets and Seattle going down to the Chargers.  As for the Titans, they are dead to me.

The Sure Fire Winner (and therefore Eliminate the Obvious) candidate this week is the Patriots hosting the Raiders.  Don’t get me wrong, the Raiders won’t win, but a 2 TD start is very generous, particularly when the Patriots have been far from impressive through the first 2 weeks.  Let’s leave it alone just to be sure.

Two weeks in, and I think we can make some reasonable assumptions about at least a few teams.  In the “consistently hopeless” basket I’m going to put the Raiders, Jaguars and, after a woeful performance on Thursday night, the Buccaneers.  On the edge of that group sit the Titans, Giants, Chiefs, Redskins, Vikings and Steelers.  At the other end of the spectrum, I’ve been surprised by the likes of the Bills, Panthers, Ravens, Texans and Cardinals – this is a key week for all of them as they look to prove they are contenders rather than overachievers.  In the “underperforming”  category I have the Saints, 49ers and Colts – all were fancied playoff contenders at the start of the season and need to right the ship quickly or risk being left behind.

On to this week’s bets – I am going to stick tight with the Chargers, and pick them as the team to burst the Bill’s bubble. Punters agree, and the money has come for them accordingly despite their underdog status.  On the subject of underdogs, there are 2 home dogs who look likely this week, both playing in all important divisional games – the Cardinals with 3.5 against the 49ers and the Browns, off the back of a win against the heavily fancied Saints, getting 2 points against the Ravens.  I also like the look of the Dolphins and Panthers at home to the Chiefs and Steelers respectively.

So, let’s spread the bets around a bit this week and see if we can get back on track;

$50 on the Chargers to win (vs Bills) @2.00 to return $100
$20 on the Home Dogs – Cardinals (+3.5 vs 49ers) into Browns (+2 vs Ravens) @ $3.64 to return $72
$20 on Dolphins (home to Chiefs) into Panthers ( home to Steelers) into Colts (@ Jags) into Bengals (home to Titans) @4.26 to return $85
$10 on Chargers, Dolphins, Panthers, Colts, Bengals, Cardinals +3.5, Browns +2 @ $31 to return $310

Happy Punting, and stay tuned to Pelican Punting as we rev up to the launch of our inaugural podcast in the coming weeks.

Dog Day Afternoon

 

Here’s some week 2 stats for your punting pleasure. As always, lines are from the final vegas lines as published at footballlocks.com

The Dogs didn’t do quite so well this week, but the trend is still in their favour.  And Vegas is yet to find its mojo with the lines – only the Packers/Jets game was close to correct.  Unders also slightly ahead, with the boffins doing a better job at getting the over/under line right.

Capture

And before I go, a quick word on the whole Adrian Peterson debacle.  Ray Rice is a dog – he punched his then fiancee in the face and showed little regard for her welfare after the fact.  Adrian Peterson is right up there with him as far as I am concerned.  Amy Davidson over at the New Yorker says most of what I want to say in a much more eloquent and considered way than I could say it (and with less swear words).  Her article is here  if you want to check it out.

One thing I did want to mention though – there was a bit of a twitter storm after the incident went public with a large number of people expressing a sentiment along the lines of “I was whooped as a kid and it never did me no harm – he should be able to discipline his kids as he sees fit” or “Without discipline I wouldn’t be the person I am today”.  Now, here’s my problem with that line of reasoning – if you think that it is ok to physically assault your 4 year old child,  then those whoopings you received as a kid DID do you harm, whether you know it or not.  As for Peterson’s “Only God can Judge me” defence…oh boy, I better go  before I really go off the edge…

Stay tuned for our break down of last week (the less said the better) and next week’s picks (winners!) coming later in the week.

Shirty

 

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 2

 

Well, this section sure didn’t live up to its name last week did it… Thanks in part to the Chargers offense screwing up basic things like snapping the ball, running a route, catching passes etc. but mostly thanks to the Chicago Bears sucking so badly.  So I have instituted a new rule that I am going to stick to this year. Eliminate the obvious.  Find the one game that you think just can’t lose, where the result is so blindingly obvious that you are even tempted to chew off more points for a better price.  Find this Sure Fire Winner (Trade Mark Pending) and strike it from your betting ticket.

My SFW pick for this week: The Packers at the -8 at home to the Jets.  I think the Packers will win, and win well (there’s no way they go 0-2 is there??), but the little voice in my head (that sounds a bit like Tony Soprano for some reason) is telling me to put the house on it, so that’s an ETO if I ever saw one.  No need to carry me this week Aaron.

So, steering away from Green Bay I am going to head just over yonder to Minnesota.  The Vikings were good last week, the Patriots, not so much (Go Fins!).  Now you don’t expect the Pats to lose the opening two games of the season (or the Saints or Packers for that matter), but as Gargy kindly pointed out in his previous post, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  2 and 8!  And if we follow the “dogs with the points” theory as per my previous post, and that dog is defending its own turf, and it already has money coming for it – it’s a no brainer (although not a Sure Fire Winner)

$50 Vikings + 3  @ 1.87 to return $93.50

One of the other big surprise packets for me out of the opening weekend were the Titans, and they continue to fly under the radar.  Locker looked pretty good against the Chiefs, and while I picked the Chiefs to regress this season, it was still an emphatic win by the Tennessee boys at Arrowhead.  Back in Nashville, they face a Cowboys outfit that was beaten by the 49ers by half time, and I think they can do it again.  The line is at -3.5 which worries me a tad, so I am going to multi up with another team that I thought was super impressive week 1;

$50 Titans (H2H) into Falcons +5 @ 2.96 to return $148

There are a couple of no-touchies for me this week (in addition to my SFW above).  The first is the Seattle @ Chargers game.  I think Gargy is right that Seattle will provide no relief from the defensive pressure applied by Arizona, and may even take it up a notch.  Having said that, the Chargers could have won that game had a few things fallen in their favour.  The Chargers could spring back here.  I also think you want to stay away from Arizona @ New York.  It is an emotional time in NYC at the moment, being the anniversary of 9-11.  I don’t like messing with emotion and I would like to see one more week of Eli adapting to the new offence before writing them off for the season.  Finally, no betting on Steelers @ Ravens – the whole Ray Rice distraction vs seige mentality thing is too hard to split for mine.

NFL week 2- Gargy’s Bets

Gargy- Hello again guys, I hope you all followed my week 1 selections, as I was very close to a perfect week and if bloody Romo didn’t throw 3 picks the overs would have collected. Week 2 is upon us and my advice to everyone is stick solid, who did you circle to win the divisions that lost? Who did you think would be terrible this year, however won in week 1?- who cares.. do not panic stay solid.

Now this week there are a few team who you can back as favourites straight out head to head, starting with –

  • The Packers. They got hammered week 1 but they were playing the Seahawks, this week they are at home to the Jets, who we did select and cash last week, but that was simply because the Raiders are even worse. $1.23 head to head, the line is 8 which does make feel a tad nervous, as I hate line over 2 scoring plays. Maybe a play in between and pick your own start, or if you are looking for a banker in your multiples have them head to head
  • The Saints. The Falcons and Matt Ryan were better than I thought they would be and to be honest the Saints defence was bad, you score 30 odd points you should win. $1.36 head to head or a line of a flat 6. I would be so suprised if the Saints started the year 0/2
  • The Seahawks. $1.38 vs Shirty’s Chargers. The Cardinals (who do have a great defensive unit) blitzed the Chargers all day; they sent 5, 6, sometimes 7 dudes charging towards rivers and then the DB’s all went man on. I see no reason why Pete Carroll wont do the same again and Seattle have a better secondary, so I am rolling with the theory if the Cards can get it done, so can Seattle- $1.38 fill em up
  • The other good price is Arizona. $1.68 vs the NY Giants. I thought Eli and the G- Men would be bad and Detroit didn’t even play all that well and still smoked the Giants, the only warning is underdog theory and the fact Big Blue are at home, is this was in the dessert in Arizona they would be $1.22- but I think its another good leg for the multiple’s.

I think there are couple of danger games and these are legs which destroy multi’s- Hello Jay Cutler and the Bears week 1 but the one which stands out for me is The Pats @ $1.65 head to head vs the Vikings. I think I underestimated the Vikings, although Tom Brady doesn’t start the year 0 from 2 does he? Surely not, but the Pats are 2 from 8 on their last 8 road games. This game will be close, avoid it.

So the $100 this week we are looking at a couple of multi’s

$60 on Packers->Saints to return $105

$40 on Seahawks-> Cardinals->Jags +13.5 to return $196

My best outsider

I went 2/2 on the outsiders last week and this week I only have 1 decent outsider-the Jaguars at $3.21 vs the Skins this week. The Jags were actually up 17-0 vs the Eagles, where as the Skins could only manage 6 points against the Texans. RG3 doesn’t look anything like the guy he was in 2012, the Jags aren’t actually that bad, for pussies you take the 6 points start, Shirt is this one of your underdogs that collects this week? Let me know champion..

Year of the Dog

 

year-of-the-dog

 

Underdogs with the points, that’s apparently the punting lesson from week 1.  Bill Simmons over at Grantland  has been talking about this for weeks in his columns and on his podcast (the BS Report – essential listening for any self respecting NFL fan).  Last year saw favourites cover the start more often than not.  Make no mistake though, this was an aberration.  All things being equal, apparently on a statistical basis you are generally slightly better taking the underdog with the points than the fav giving them away.  And the Simmons theory is that this year will see a “snap back” where the underdogs get their revenge.

So how is that looking after week 1?  Well, using the record of the lines available at Football Locks week 1 was most certainly a Dog’s Day Out;

Capture

Wow.  Bearing in mind that if the bookies were perfect, the Underdog/Fav split should be 50/50, that’s a pretty big win for the Dogs.  Now I have no idea what the stats are on Dogs getting home in week 1 (maybe it’s more likely because of uncertainty), and whether we are likely to see a correction in week 2.  I’m also not sure whether this result will cause Vegas to tighten the lines a bit.  But on the face of it, there seems to be something to what Simmons is saying.  Take the points – it’s the Year of the Dog!!

Shirty’s Ballbag – The Pelican Punting Mailbag Week 1, 2014

 

You gotta love football!!  Not only is the NFL back in all of its visceral glory, but you lucky punters get the weekly pleasure of checking out my Ballbag.  So, without further ado, lets delve into the bag for the first time in 2014.

After a hectic weekend of Week 1 action we have plenty to get to.  First up, a letter from Jordan from Westminster, Maryland, who is just 9 years old (awww)

Dear Pelicans,

I am 9 years old and I know that it is not cool to hit people, especially girls, and especially girls that you love.  I don’t actually love any girls, except for my Mom who is like 40 and not really a girl, and my sister most of the time, unless she has hidden my Transformers.  But even if she hides my Transformers or makes my Skywalkers go to one of her stupid tea parties, I would never hit her.  And if I did I would totally own up and apologise because, like my Dad always says, that’s what a man would do.  Anyway, Ray Rice is a douche and that guy who is in charge of like, all of Football, with the red hair who looks a bit like Jim Carey’s friend from The Truman Show is one too – if he was my teacher, the whole class would go crazy all the time because sometimes a leader needs to be firm and make a stand (my Dad says that too, but he can’t even use a power drill so I don’t think he could make anything) and not just react after stuff has already happened.

Jordan.

Thanks Jordan.  You nailed it buddy.

Also in the bag this week;

Dear Pelicans,

I love Pelicans. They seem such majestic creatures with their huge beaks, graceful flight and giant wings.  Although I guess if you had one flying towards you really fast they could maybe hit you EVEN IF YOU TRIED TO DUCK AND GET OUT OF THE WAY AND IF THEY DID IT WOULD REALLY HURT, AND OH SHIT WHAT IF SOMEONE WAS FILMING – IT WOULD BE EVERYWHERE ON THE INTERNET AND….haha.  Sorry about that.  Doc says the fear will pass I just have to give it time.  Next week, my therapy is due to kick….AHHH NO KICKING NO KICKING NO KICKING.  I’m kick, I don’t get kicked…I kick, I don’t get kicked.

Gotta go.
Spencer from Cleveland

Thanks Spencer.  That was…weird.

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 Dear Pelicans,

I know you guys are NFL experts.  In your opinion, is it worse for a Quarterback to fumble or throw an interception? 

Thanks
Josh, Tampa Bay

Good question. Well Josh, here at Pelican Punting we don’t believe in limiting ourselves or doing things by halves.  And decision making has been shown to be one of the activities that is most taxing to the brain.  If you like two teams to cover the start, don’t spend time working out which one to back, just back ‘em both.  And preferably in a parlay!  So Josh, in answer to your question, an interception and a fumble are just as bad as each other, but together they are a thing of rare beauty.

 

tearsofmccown.0

 

And that’s the ballbag emptied for this week folks.  Stay tuned for our review of last week’s games (f*ck you Chicago) and our tips for next week, which will be coming out soon.

NFL Week 1- Gargy’s Bets.

BOOM we are back !!! The Seahawks opened up with a fairly easy win over the packers yesterday, the NFl doesn’t really swing into overdrive until Sunday when we have 13 games taking place.
Hands up who remembers some of Gargy’s key betting tips for the NFL?
1. Home teams win more often than away teams
2. Be careful when backing favourites in division games, no matter how badly teams are, hey always lift for the divisional rivals
3. When selecting your own start, you want +3.5 or +7.5
4. If you get burned the week previous- double down.

Righto with that out of the way, here is how I see week 1.

First up, I like the Jets… Yeah I know what you are thinking, the Jets are you out of your mind, but I thought long and hard about it and the Jets front 7 is excellent, their secondary not so great especially with Dee Milliner out with an ankle injury but they will stop the run and force rookie QB Derek Carr to throw the ball. I think Geno Smith will be better in year 2 and then when in certain spots they will be able to bring on my man Mike Vick who will scrabble and move the chains. The $1.41 is a tad skinny but I cant see Oakland running up many points.
Next up I like the overs in the Dallas/49 ers match. The line in 50.5 and I reckon it wont be enough. The Dallas defence will be in the bottom 3 in the NFL, they will leak points every match, but the thing is their attack will be a top 10, maybe top 5- Dez Bryant is awesome, Witten, Murray at RB to name a few, Romo loves chucking picks but if he stays healthy will throw 20+ TD’s at a minimum They will consistently score 25+ points every match but leak 30+. The Niners defence is missing Bowman and Aldon Smith- this lack of pass rush will put a lot more pressure on their the secondary which will have to step up if they are to go any good.

Shirt suggested betting $50- lets double it and spend $100 each week, so we will have-
$50 on the jets to collect $72
$30 on the overs to collect $57
$20 on the above double into Eagles, Bronco to collect $74

Now I am not going to back these (so don’t call me a p*ssy) but here are a couple of outsiders who represent value-
The Vikings @ Rams; $2.51 Head to head or if you nibble off a start. The Rams have a very inexperienced QB under the gun with Bradford blowing out his knee, the Rams defence is good, but they are up against AP who is great running back.

The Benglals head to head vs divisional rivals at Baltimore; Please see rule 1, 2 and 3; lets take the +7.5 for Cinci for arguments sake.

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 1

Well, avid readers, the countdown is on.  Kickoff to the 2014 NFL Season is a mere 48 hours away (assuming I have that time conversion right…) and, as I assume the kids say these days, this shit’s about to get real.  As I will be engaged for the next two days in a riveting and mind expanding work conference, I thought I would jump in and get my weekly best bets out of the way, beating a path through the punting wilderness that my esteemed colleague can then use to navigate his way out of the jungle, unscathed.  This year, we will each be playing with $50 and we will try and keep a better track of our bank so that you can see how much more than Gargy I am returning.

With news breaking overnight that Jim Isray, owner of the Colts, has been suspended by the League for 6 weeks and fined $500,000 for a DUI incident that occurred in March, after testing positive to prescription opiates, it’s tempting to get into a whole thing about the bizarre state of a sport that; punishes it’s owners more than it’s players (the owners apparently accept this and consider themselves happy to be held to a higher standard than players, which I guess is laudable), or to wonder how the league can justify coming down harder on recreational drug users and sufferers of addiction than it does on users of performance enhancing drugs or purveyors of domestic violence, or to try and tease out some betting advantage from the incident (I think there is none – the Colts shouldn’t care if Isray is there or not).  But ultimately this is just a sad story about a very rich man with an addiction problem and poor judgement, who is hopefully on the path to getting better.

And in case you were wondering who Jim Isray was;

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No, wait a second, that’s Eddie Izzard… Ah, here we go;

irsay1

One thing that does shock me is that it was Jim Isray that got busted, and not the guy who owns the worst team in the league, has installed swimming pools in his stadium, and looks like this;

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“Why yes I do look like Ron Jeremy, and no, I’m not indicating how big I like my sandwiches”

Onto the bets!

After talking up the Chargers in my last post, and warming up to them more by the day, it would be remiss of me not to sink my teeth into them in week one, particularly since the bookies have handed us a big, juicy, Charger filled burrito by installing them as 3 point underdogs @ Arizona (which is currently at $1.95 – get on!!).  

I’m also a big fan of the Bears at home to the hapless Bills (line is at -7) and I like the Texans to get their season off to a solid start hosting the Redskins (-2.5 is into $1.83).  I am going to take Gargy’s advice and make us a little PYOL action in my multi just to be on the safeside.

So the bets are;

Chargers to win – $20 to return $47.60

Texans (-2.5) into Bears (-5.5) – $20 to return $63.68

Texans (-2.5) into Bears (-7) into Chargers (+3) – $10 to return $68.16

Gargy will be on shortly to add his thoughts, and providing the Chargers don’t get thumped and Phil Rivers doesn’t end up with a season ending injury over the course of the weekend, I’ll be back next week to dissect the weekend and post pictures of me counting my cash.

Gargy’s Ante Post Bets 2014

G’day guys, my mate Shirty challenged me to release my best bets for the NFL for season 2014. So here goes; I too bet with Sportsbet and there is a very good reason- PYOL (or pick your own start) I would love to know if the hundred of followers we have from Canada, Mexico and the USA are familiar with this concept, I tell you why it is important- last year 50% of all matches were decided by 7 points of less, 23% of all matches were decided by fewer than 3 points, therefore if the line as an example is 5.5 points, chew off the additional points and give yourself a bigger window to collect. It may cost you 30-40 cents but take the +7.5 or the +3.5, never ever back your team with a +2.5 start, make it 3.5.

I think the Chargers can have a good year but they are not beating the Broncos, so folks where Shirty and I differ- $7 is value, but its not value if it doesn’t collect, I like collecting cash.

I am really warming to the Colts, $11 to win the AFC is a really good bet, they are $23 to win superbowl. I am going to chuck $20 on each.

Given that the NFC is loaded with talent Seattle, Packers, Saints, Bears, Eagles to name a few- there is money to be made in the AFC. The Broncos/Pats/Colts are the 3 standouts and you combine them and you get you $2.67 and that will do me for $50.

I too have selected a few under/overs for you

49ers under 10.5 wins.

The Saints to win 11 matches (10 is a push) @ $1.87.

The Colts to win 10 games @$ 1.91