NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

Gargy- Hey guys remember us? Well after a great start and a mid-season slump we gave our blog a bit of a break, but on the eve of the play offs I thought we would look back at this year and make a couple of play off predictions. The Pelican Punters club has earned our money back but it hasn’t been a great year. If you followed my division winners you would be slightly in front as I got 5/8, where as my good mate Shirt only managed 3/8 as he put a bit too much faith in the useless Dolphins. Neither of us saw the Falcons and Texan falling so far.

 

So this weekend- Wildcard weekend

Chiefs at Colts $1.91 each

A very tough start for the play offs; these teams met a few weeks back and the colts hammered the Chiefs and whilst I feel this game will be a lot closer I am taking the home team. I don’t like either of these teams’ chances next week; as the winner goes to the Patriots, but for this one- take Andrew Luck and his boys to win this one. I know Shirt likes the Colts with a small start and I think that is a smart bet in the event of a really close game.

 

Saints $2.13 @ Eagles $1.67 (-2.5)

The Saints are tremendous value @$2.13. Lots of people will show stats where they don’t play well away from home and in games in the outdoors, its true they prefer playing in domes and games in the big easy, but they are a good team. My Eagles offence is awesome; Nick Foles and Shady McCoy have been killing it, however their defence is bad. Last week they couldn’t contain Jason Witten, how on earth will they stop Jimmy Graham? The best news for Philly is the fact the Saints defence sucks also. It’s a no bet game for mine. Bet on Shady McCoy to rush for over 115 yards.

 

Chargers $3.20 @ Bengals $1.36(-7.5)

I will be in the minority whereby I think the Chargers are the best outsiders this weekend, as Andy Dalton has never won a play off game for the Bengals and they haven’t won a play off game for nearly 20 years. Their defence is excellent but I feel their attack can be hit and miss. In week 13 the Bengals beat the chargers at home and they kept Rivers quiet, but I reckon the Bengals will choke this weekend. Shirty predicted that Phillip Rivers would have a good year and he has been awesome. I feel he is due for a really bad games where he throws multiple picks, I just hope it’s not this game. For this one I am on the Chargers with the start and in the event of full disclosure I have had a sneaky $20 on the chargers to win the superbowl @$34.

 

49ers $1.67 @ Packers $2.20

The games of the week and before I tell you how to lose more money, what about the fans who will attend this game? It is going to be minus 25 degrees Celsius, that’s right MINUS 25 or minus 13 Fahrenheit if you are reading this from the USA. Wow….

I really like the niners and I think they can win this game. They have an excellent front 7 in defence, a great set of healthy receivers, Colin Kap is starting to look good again and they have Frank Gore to smash the ball when required. I know its risky betting against Aaron Rodgers but its his second game in about 2 months and last week the Bears made him look much better than he actually was.

I will hassle my partner in crime to put together a few of his witty comments before now and the superbowl. 

NFL Week 10- Monday Night Football

MIami $1.74 (-1) @ Tampa $2.15 Over/under 41.5

Gargy- Hey punters remember us? Pelican Punting? Well folks we have been a tad busy and to be honest the last couple of weeks has been pretty tough finding a winner- so to be honest you aren’t missing much- but we are back baby. I am sure my old mate shirt will have a big ball bag and a Thursday night preview for us. But for now- Monday Night Football week 10.

Ok so since we have gone away there has been a little story about Ritchie Incognito- you may have heard about him? If not google him. So I will set the scene for this game- the winless Bucs at home to the Miami Dolphins who are distracted.

The teams are actually fairly evenly matched with the Fins ranking better with offense, where as the Bucs have a little advantage on the defence. Distraction or no distraction the Fins are 4-4 after winning their first three games of the year, where as the bucs are ducks eggs.

I think the Fins win a close, low scoring match- but I will simply take them at the -1 @$1.80 x $100.

Thursday Night Fever – Week #8

Roger Goodall, you are sorely testing my patience.  Why in the name of everything holy would you choose to make Carolina @ Tampa Bay the Thursday Night Football game?  Are you mocking me, is that it Goodall, you SOB.  I will mess you up, don’t think I won’t you smug, square headed, sandy haired freak.  I don’t care that you bear a passing resemblance to one of my favourite wrestlers of all time, Rowdy Roddy Piper [don't expect a picture - do some of your own google work people]

What am I to do with this travesty – a team that hasn’t been above .500 in 5 years (that’s right, not never finished the season – never even had it on their record) up against a team that is 0-6 for the year and is starting a pin headed ginger at QB.

I had intended to do a quick summary of all the things on TV that you could watch instead of this game, but, on top of having to write this post, the internet appears to have frozen on my computer.   Happy Friday!  I blame you Roger.

$50 on Panthers win, game score under 40.5 @2.55.  Let’s get this over with.

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL, TNF

NFL Best Bets – Week 7

Gargy- Last week no ball bag, no “what we learned” as it was a terrible weekend for us at pelican punting, but I hope you all followed Shirty on Thursday night- he is the Thursday night specialist. So this week here is what I like; I like Tom Brady and the Patriots. There is a bit mail around that the Gronk will be back, even with a 5-1 record they need him. $1.55 is a nice price, the Jets so far this year, their defense has been good and Geno Smith has been good, but I reckon he is due for a bad game. The other team I like is the Bears over the skins. $1.85 head to head is juice. RG3 and Alfred Morris are not playing anywhere they did last year, Cutler has been playing well and has a nice bunch of receivers to chuck to and I reckons the bears defense can step it up.  $2.86 x $50 for a collect of $143.37. I haven’t put a wager on it, but the other game I am looking forward to is Peyton’s homecoming, when he heads back to Indy to face the colts. I hope he torches them, chucks 5 x TD’s and 450 yards and then after the game says to Jim Irsay “How do you like them apples”. Are you having a sickie tomorrow shirt so that you can watch this game? Are you rooting for the Broncos? What else you like mate?

Shirt – Gargs, I’ve been more flat out than a one legged man in an arse kicking competition this past week, and while the idea of taking a sickie and spending it on the coach watching Manning and Luck go head to head is certainly appealing, there are two downsides to the plan – the first is I am no less busy, and I would get an arse kicking of my own were I to no show.  The second is that my 4 year old doesn’t have pre school on Monday, and while she can just about leave me alone for long enough to watch the Roosters play rugby league for 80 minutes (she’s a big Sonny Bill fan) 3+ hours of NFL would push her over the edge.

Feeling pretty good about my punting this week. I had a reasonable day on the gg’s on Saturday (although didn’t find the Caulfield Cup winner) and obviously got my Thursday Night mojo back with an easy return.  I would like to find something this week to really knock one out of the park to kill off any residual punting demons from the horror run of the last couple of weeks.   I find myself agreeing with Gargy this week – I think both the Pats and the Bears are specials, but there are enough games out there that we needn’t throw all our eggs in the one basket. So let’s go with 49ers -3.5 (@ Titans) into the Falcons -6 at home to the Buccs into the Chiefs -6 at Arrowhead to continue the Texans woes.  The punters are with me, with all three options into 1.87 for a total multi return of $6.54.  I’m going to take 100 crisp dollars of my kitty and plonk it on that for a possible return of $654.

For those asking the obvious question, yes, I can confirm I am this guy;

Speaking of testicles, I also think it’s a great time to take the $5 on offer about the Chiefs winning the AFC West.  The Broncos are $1.14 to win it, and probably rightfully so, but let’s not forget that Peyton remains one hit away from major neck surgery, and the Chiefs remain undefeated, so technically have exactly the same probability as the Broncos to win it at this point.  If you had a two horse race, and the race was over 1600m, and you were around the 700 metre mark, and the two horses had run neck and neck over that first 700m and you could get $5 for one of those horses to win, and you knew the other jockey was carrying and injury and might just fall off at any time, and that your horse had a pretty easy run home, you’d probably take the $5 right?  Is anyone with me?

Finally, and apropos of, well, nothing really, those crazy guys at Bad Lip Reading have been at it again.  NFL Fans would be familiar with their work via this brilliant piece of remastered art;

An orange peanut for me?! Now Game of Thrones fans can get on the Bad Lip Reading Band wagon with this gem…

Happy Punting!

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL

Thursday Night Football – Week #7

We’re in a bit of a mid season slump here at PP.  Last week Gargs inexplicably backed the Texans, a bet which got what it deserved when they were comprehensively trounced by the Rams.  Meanwhile, I was doing the winners dance* thinking the Saints were home (+1.5) until Tom Fucking Brady led an absolutely ridiculous 80+ yards in under 2 mins with no timeouts, and threw a TD on the last play.  What a douche.

My previous Thursday Night heroics are a distant memory and you’re only as good as your last win, so I will be looking to get back on track this week.  I was amazed to see Seattle giving away less than a TD to Arizona.  I know they’ve been better than I thought they would be, but damn it, I will not stand for any suggestion that they will get within 1 TD of the Seahawks, home or not, particularly with Richard Sherman picking off Carson Palmer at will.  However, acknowledging that Arizona are…not the worst team in the league…I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they may score a few points.

Unfortunately I’m having trouble accessing centrebet on my phone as I type this**, but I noticed the over/under line was at 40 and the score line at 6.5. So we are going Seattle -6.5 /  Over 40.  $50 on that at whatever the price is – expect it will be 3.60 or so.  Go Hawks!

Shirt

* is that something everyone does when they have a win – the little “doo doo doo” shuffle that says “winner” to anyone inclined to be looking

** which is wierd, because I would expect the betting rush to come AFTER I’d published my tip…

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL, TNF

NFL Week 6- Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football- Week 6

(Colts $1.77, Chargers $2.10, (+2 $1.91) Over/Under 49.5)

 

Gargy- Righto folks, stick with us- the weekend was an absolute wipeout with the shithouse Texans crushing my main bet, plus the Pelicans weekly multi, while my good mate Shirt paid the price for betting against Tom Brady,  so MNF sees the Colts head west to the Chargers.

I think the match will be close as I feel the Colts will have one eye on next weeks game when Peyton returns home for the first time and the Chargers will lift for the big national game, plus it will be a low scoring affair. Shirty’s boy Phillip Rivers has been pretty good this year and whilst he was ordinary against Oakland last week, if you wipe that game- his season has been good and he has put up great numbers. Luck has showed why he was #1 in the draft two years back, beating the Seahawks last week- he has a nice group of receivers to throw to, Richardson to pound the ground game and their defence is solid. Therefore I am taking the Colts win/Under 49.5 @$3.65 x $40.

NFL Week 6 – Best Bets

Gargy- Hey Shirty how are you champion? This week I have more magic in my kit bag. The Texans at $1.33 head to head are short, but are a banker in any multi this weekend. Matt Schuab has been dreadful and the residents of Houston have even been paying him home visits, but he is playing the Rams and I think he will get his groove back. The second leg is a familiar one- Eagles over the line ( I think nearly every game has been overs with the Eagles this year).  Their defense sucks, but they can run up points, even with Nick Foles under the gun. The line is 45.5 and whilst the Bucs have had a few problems scoring points I reckon they can grab a few TD’s against this week. A simple 2 legger @$2.54 times $60 will do me. What do you like Shirt?

Shirt – I’m not sure I follow your logic Gargs – Pick a team that is struggling, and a QB who is largely to blame, and then predict a monumental form reversal despite highlighting their short price…  I wish you luck my friend.  I am going to do the opposite and take a team that has looked close to unbeatable.  The Saints are 5-0 and have been awesome all year.  Their defense has been very solid – they haven’t allowed more than 18 points from an opposition in any of their 5 wins.  Meanwhile the Pats, who looked woeful against the Bengals last week in their first loss of the season, have struggled to score points all season and haven’t looked particularly dominant in any of their victories.  The Pats have lost one of their most important players for the season in Vince Wilfork, and I don’t think what’s left has the ability to stop the Brees-Graham freight train.  And somehow the Saints are underdogs…$2.05 for the win or +1.5 at $1.91.  Yes please.  I also like the looks of the Cowboys at home.  They really put it to the Broncos last week – and the Redskins sure as hell ain’t the Broncos.  Let’s take both at the line – $50 on Saints (+1.5) into Cowboys (-5.5) to return $182

Finally, on a serious note, consolations to Adrian Peterson and his family following the terrible tragedy this week – as members of the extended NFL fan community, our hearts go out to him.  Don’t know the guy (obviously) but what happened to him should not be something that any parent should ever have to experience.  And he is talking about taking the field this week.  Wow.

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL

Thursday Night Football – Week 6

Thursday Night’s a great night for football.  Except that it isn’t .  I am busy so I will be brief (note I still bothered to post)…

Giants - 0-5 for the first time since 1987, staring down the barrell of 0-6 for the first time in (my) living memory.  Bears have dropped two games in a row and slipped to 3-2.  It’s hard to see what will turn the Giants around, unless Eli suddenly stops throwing interceptions , but that’s the thing about the Giants, they, possibly more than any other team in the comp, have the ability to go from truly awful to awe inspiring from one week to the next.

So, I’m in a quandry as to what to do with this game, and I am going to take on something of a bizarre bet as a result .  This is an option on Centrebet – not sure about other sites – Second Half to be the Highest Scoring Half.   $50 @ 1.95.  Weird huh.
See you next time and happy punting.

Shirt

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL

Ball Bag #4 – The Pelican Punting Mailbag

Greetings dear readers, and welcome to the ballbag for another week.  A few items in the mailbox this week, so let’s get straight to it.

Tohu from Melbourne emailed us earlier today

“Hey bros, how’s it going.  Love the blog - just a quick one ’cause I know you are heaps busy hey.   I was booked to head to the UK in a couple of weeks for work, but some selfish prick has now decided he wants to go so I have to stay home.  I am filthy on my boss for saying I could go and then cancelling, so I figure I should head to the states and catch a game.  Any ideas?  Cheers cuz!”

Unlucky Tohu.  Don’t know your personal circumstances, but sounds to me like the bloke who took your spot on the trip was probably much better at your job than you are.  Chin up buddy – I personally reckon you should try and catch the Packers v Vikings match up in Week 8, where you can watch a serviceable QB in Christian Ponder up against Aaron Rogers, a Superbowl winning genius and a superior athlete in every respect.  Cheers!

Lance from Melbourne sent us a tweet “Oy dicks, ur from Sidnee rite?  Lookin for a decent pad with nuff room for my mad crew.  Money no object. Bungy!!!”

I’d like to say we have a no dickheads policy in Sydney, but I’d be lying.

And finally, Arthur from Toongabbie wrote in with a gripe typical of much of the correspondence received this week;

“WTF is it with Gargy not writing a Monday night preview??  Public Holiday weekend, and the founder of the site can’t be bothered throwing up a few words and a tip?  Poor form gents, poor form”

Touche Arthur, touche.

NFL Rewind- Week 5

Week 5 what we learned

Gargy- Sorry folks, no MNF preview but I think we saved some cash, as I would have had the Falcons beating the Jets. I watched a fair bit of the game and say what you want about Rex Ryan and the Jets; but their defence was excellent, especially their ability to stop the run.  Geno was great- so give it up for the NY Jets.

Gargy- Can anyone name 2 more disappointing teams thus far than the Texans and Falcons.? The Falcons are now 4 wins behind division rivals the Saints and don’t look anything like the team from season 2012. Matt Ryan still looks great, however he has really only has 1 target- big Gonzo who is an absolute beast. The O-line looks poor and the defensive line could be better, however the biggest factor for the Falcons- is no running back. This is a big concern for them. My other big disappointment is the Texans. Shirt can you blame Schuab for everything? The dude has thrown a pick 6 4 times on the trot.

Shirt- Here’s a couple of interesting Pick 6 facts.  Prior to throwing one against the 49ers, he had thrown one in three consecutive games, a record he shared with the likes of Peyton Manning and John Elway.  People are now saying “well, he has the record to himself” after throwing 4 in 4, except that Peyton actually threw 4 in 2 games one year, so on one view, he is still no worse than the best QB of the modern era.  My own personal view is the focus on pick 6’s is totally overrated – whether an interception is turned over for a touchdown is less relevant than whether he throws an interception in the first place, and the circumstances around it.  So while 4 pick sixes looks bad as a stat, 4 regular interceptions could be just as bad, depending on field position, scoreline, ease of throw etc.   Unfortunately for Schuab he’s throwing up garbage to go with his bad luck and probably deserves to be picked off for scores.  It is painful to watch, particularly for someone who had them as comfortable division winners and potential super bowl contenders.   Bzzzt.  And speaking of Bzzzt – it would appear that…the…Cardinals…are….not…that…bad.  There I said it.  Bravo Carson Palmer.  Bravo.

 

Gargy- Finally… Tony Romo. I am not going to blame him, he is so much fun to watch. He threw for over 500 yards and 5 x TD’s who cares if he threw and INT in the 4th quarter, I know Manning is good but how about the Cowboys get a few more stops.

 

Shirt- No way that loss was Romo’s fault.  The guy put up some incredible numbers and did all he could to win the game.  The fact his defence couldn’t support him enough such that the game turned on one small error is shameful.  I feel for the guy, but sweet baby Jesus, what do you have to do to beat Peyton Manning??   Speaking of Peyton, the Colts seem to be doing a-ok without him.  I was a big fan of Luck when he was at Stanford, and it’s hard not to like the guy.  The news out of Indy this morning is that running back Ahmad Bradshaw will face season ending neck surgery, so their mid season Richardson trade is looking even cleverer now – he’s yet to be great for them, but they will at least have a solid option in the back field.

 

The good, the Bad the Ugly

The Good- Andrew Luck, Geno Smith

The Bad- Shirty’s division winner picks (Texans, Falcons to name 2), the Carolina Panthers; Shirty’s recent punting form

The Ugly- The Giants. The Jags are sh!t everyone knows and expects that, the Giants are staring down the barrel of their worst finish in a very long time