Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 5

What a wonderful week!  Two winners last week for me, with only the Steelers, who rolled over and gave the game to the Buccs, upsetting what would have been a perfect triple return.  The Giants/Chiefs bet in particular is possibly the easiest 3/1 return you will see all year.  I am sure our 3 regular readers are stoked.

But we cannot dwell on our success – we need to find a few winners for this week;

No Sure Fire Winner this week (tempted to say the Saints, but that would mean I would have to have any faith in the Buccs to win back to back games, which I don’t)

There’s a nice early bet which I think will do us nicely this week.  Green Bay host the Vikings in Thursday night football, and as we have seen since the inception of Thursday night games, backing up to play Thursday after a Sunday game is a tough ask.   We’ve seen blowouts in the three Thursday games with teams backing up (I’m ignoring week 1 obviously), and with Rogers firing last week, the Pack at home and the Vikings likely without Bridgewater, who provided something of a spark to their stuttering offence last week, and still missing Peterson, it all adds up to a Packers shelacking.  At the same time, I think the Packers defence is porous enough to allow the Vikings a few scores to get our total up where we need it;

$90 on Green Bay -8.5/Total Score +47.5 @ 3.60 to return $324

In the other games that jump out at me, the Chargers are giving away less than a touchdown at home to the Jets – the Jets are great at stopping the run, but the Chargers don’t have much of a running game anyway, so I don’t think this will slow Rivers & Co down, providing they can sort out their diabolical mess at centre;

Legursky

You can’t do that man.  Chargers to cover here, Legursky notwithstanding.

The Titans host the Browns, who are coming off the bye.  Somehow the Titans are favourites, despite having not won since week 1 – their victory over the Chiefs was followed by heavy losses to the Cowboys, Bengals and Colts.  Now I realise the Browns are not quite at this level, but they are 1-2 and their two losses were by 3 and 2 points respectively, their most recent loss being to a Ravens field goal on full time, a game they should have locked up.  I think they are a better team than the Titans and the +1 @ 2.05 is generous.

The Bengals, currently the best team in football (arguably) face off against the worst team in football (arguably) in the Patriots. You can get $1.91 for the Bengals giving away a mere point and a half to the dismal Patriots.  Yes, the Pats are back home, but I don’t expect this will help them.  They are 2-2 for the season but even that is flattering, and anyone who thinks that Brady is capable of doing a Rogers and turning the team around on his own is overestimating both Tom and the talent around him – Bengals by more than a TD.

Finally, the Eagles face the Rams this week.  The Eagles scored 21 points against the 49ers last week, but exactly none of those points came from their offence.  They were all special teams.  And things don’t get any easier this week.  The Rams have their problems on offence but they are still a tough defence.  With the line at 47.5, this one screams UNDERS to me.

$10 Chargers -6.5 (1.87) into Rams/Eagles -47.5 (1.91) into Bengals -1.5 (1.91) into Browns +1 (2.05) to return $139

Happy punting!

Wag the Dog

 

The Dogs started with a bang (a massive win to the Giants in Washington) but the favs were dominant on Sunday until a late surge from Detroit, Tampa, the Vikings and Dallas saw them charge back, before the Chiefs tore the Pats a new one on Monday night.  Dogs ended up slightly under 50% for the week.  Notably, of the 4 home dogs this week, only the Bears failed to get the chocolates;

Capture

A few observations on the spreadsheet through 4 weeks;

-  This is the first time the Underdogs have been under  50%, but they still have a slight edge through 4 weeks (55.3%)

- Home teams at the line were dominant this week, with a 66.7% win percentage (I excluded the London game)

- If you were an overs better, you’d be pretty happy this week with a massive 10 of 13 going over.  Makes you wonder whether we will see a significant shift upwards in the over/under line next week – watch this space.

- Finally, some great wins on the punt for the Pelicans, and plenty to talk about later in the week – stay tuned.

Shirt

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 4

 

Well, last week Gargy and I finally both booted home winners.  My more speculative bets were derailed by the Ravens last second field goal (forcing the Browns game to a push) and poor performances from the Dolphins (who I am not touching again this year) and the Panthers.  It’s been a roller coaster ride through the first 3 rounds, and any punter who is making money on the NFL this year – we salute you.  Just a reminder that you can see all of our bets and their success (and failure) on The Winners Circle tab above.

On to this week’s bets.  It’s the first of the bye rounds, so perennial favourites Seattle, Denver and Cinci, along with Arizona, St Louis and Cleveland are all on the sidelines.   On the field, there are some crucial match ups that should probably be avoided from a punting perspective –  it’s a big week for the Packers (away to the Bears), 49ers (at home to the Eagles) and Cowboys (at home to the Saints).  The least watchable game of the week would have to be Miami vs Oakland in London – for a league that is apparently trying to expand it’s international appeal, they sure know how to choose shitty games to export.

At the risk of being boring and predictable, I am going to stick with the Chargers again this week, who host the hapless Jags.  They are giving away a 13 point start, but bear in mind the Jags have lost their first 3 by 17, 31 and 21 points. I really don’t think 13 points will be enough to help Jacksonville against a fired up Philip Rivers, even with Bortles now under centre.  The Bolts back at home and riding high on wins over Seattle and Buffalo and with a very comfy schedule over the next few weeks will be looking to make a statement in the AFC West, particularly with Denver cooling its heels on the sideline.

The Chiefs get 3.5 at home to the Pats (who only just scraped home against Oakland FFS) and I think this will be enough for them at Arrowhead – punters agree, with the line into $1.87 with Centrebet.

In Thursday night football, I have a feeling the real Kirk Cousins is going to show himself (that’s a bad thing by the way), Eli is going to take control and the Giants with the points will get it done in a crucial NFC East match up in Washington.

And finally I am going to parlay up the four home teams who I think are locks this week;

So the bet is;

$60 Chargers – 13 ($1.91 vs Jags) to return $114.60
$20 Chiefs + 3.5 ($1.87 vs Pats) into Giants +3.5 (1.95 @ Washington) to return $73
$20 h2h Chargers ($1.12)/Colts ($1.30)/Steelers ($1.28)/Ravens ($1.57) to return $58.50

Gargy’s in Africa this weekend on a smurf chasing safari junket, so unless he finds a wifi connection, or a particularly robust carrier pigeon, I suspect he won’t have any bets for us this week.

In the meantime, here’s his impersonation of a lion who just licked a lemon.

EC14E2305ADD8AA9D15B70C87D46A1_h498_w598_m2

 

Shirty

It’s a Dog’s Life

 

Well, less so this week.  The Favs evened up the ledger a bit this week, and it took the Bears with a convincing Monday night win over the Jets to get the Dogs back to 50%.  There were two pushes, the first of the year, while the Raiders came awfully close to getting another for the Dogs.  Meanwhile the home teams dominated the H2H but were out-muscled at the line.

Capture

 

Week 4 tips coming soon – although possibly not from Gargy as he heads off into the wilds of Africa in an effort to find some more Pelican Punting readers.

NFL Week 2- Gargy’s Bets

NFL Week 3

 

Some horrible punting in week 2 and so we move onto week 3 with not as much confidence. There are some really good teams who have started 0-2 and the stats say only 16% of teams make the play offs when they start zero from two. Therefore the Saints, Colts and Chiefs amongst others better win in week 3.

 

So week 3 we are going to keep it simple

Colts win Head to head $1.34-> Saints Head to head at $1.30 X $100 to return $175

 

Shirt will probably disagree with my bet, because in the year of the dog, underdogs are covering lots, but I am taking 2 class teams to beat inferior teams (in my opinion)

By gargyandshirt Posted in NFL

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 3

We have had a bit of a rough start the season here at Pelican Punting.  On the plus side, hopefully you got off the Vikings after hearing about Peterson being deactivated last week, and listened to my no touchy tips, with Greenbay only just getting home over the Jets and Seattle going down to the Chargers.  As for the Titans, they are dead to me.

The Sure Fire Winner (and therefore Eliminate the Obvious) candidate this week is the Patriots hosting the Raiders.  Don’t get me wrong, the Raiders won’t win, but a 2 TD start is very generous, particularly when the Patriots have been far from impressive through the first 2 weeks.  Let’s leave it alone just to be sure.

Two weeks in, and I think we can make some reasonable assumptions about at least a few teams.  In the “consistently hopeless” basket I’m going to put the Raiders, Jaguars and, after a woeful performance on Thursday night, the Buccaneers.  On the edge of that group sit the Titans, Giants, Chiefs, Redskins, Vikings and Steelers.  At the other end of the spectrum, I’ve been surprised by the likes of the Bills, Panthers, Ravens, Texans and Cardinals – this is a key week for all of them as they look to prove they are contenders rather than overachievers.  In the “underperforming”  category I have the Saints, 49ers and Colts – all were fancied playoff contenders at the start of the season and need to right the ship quickly or risk being left behind.

On to this week’s bets – I am going to stick tight with the Chargers, and pick them as the team to burst the Bill’s bubble. Punters agree, and the money has come for them accordingly despite their underdog status.  On the subject of underdogs, there are 2 home dogs who look likely this week, both playing in all important divisional games – the Cardinals with 3.5 against the 49ers and the Browns, off the back of a win against the heavily fancied Saints, getting 2 points against the Ravens.  I also like the look of the Dolphins and Panthers at home to the Chiefs and Steelers respectively.

So, let’s spread the bets around a bit this week and see if we can get back on track;

$50 on the Chargers to win (vs Bills) @2.00 to return $100
$20 on the Home Dogs – Cardinals (+3.5 vs 49ers) into Browns (+2 vs Ravens) @ $3.64 to return $72
$20 on Dolphins (home to Chiefs) into Panthers ( home to Steelers) into Colts (@ Jags) into Bengals (home to Titans) @4.26 to return $85
$10 on Chargers, Dolphins, Panthers, Colts, Bengals, Cardinals +3.5, Browns +2 @ $31 to return $310

Happy Punting, and stay tuned to Pelican Punting as we rev up to the launch of our inaugural podcast in the coming weeks.

Dog Day Afternoon

 

Here’s some week 2 stats for your punting pleasure. As always, lines are from the final vegas lines as published at footballlocks.com

The Dogs didn’t do quite so well this week, but the trend is still in their favour.  And Vegas is yet to find its mojo with the lines – only the Packers/Jets game was close to correct.  Unders also slightly ahead, with the boffins doing a better job at getting the over/under line right.

Capture

And before I go, a quick word on the whole Adrian Peterson debacle.  Ray Rice is a dog – he punched his then fiancee in the face and showed little regard for her welfare after the fact.  Adrian Peterson is right up there with him as far as I am concerned.  Amy Davidson over at the New Yorker says most of what I want to say in a much more eloquent and considered way than I could say it (and with less swear words).  Her article is here  if you want to check it out.

One thing I did want to mention though – there was a bit of a twitter storm after the incident went public with a large number of people expressing a sentiment along the lines of “I was whooped as a kid and it never did me no harm – he should be able to discipline his kids as he sees fit” or “Without discipline I wouldn’t be the person I am today”.  Now, here’s my problem with that line of reasoning – if you think that it is ok to physically assault your 4 year old child,  then those whoopings you received as a kid DID do you harm, whether you know it or not.  As for Peterson’s “Only God can Judge me” defence…oh boy, I better go  before I really go off the edge…

Stay tuned for our break down of last week (the less said the better) and next week’s picks (winners!) coming later in the week.

Shirty

 

Shirty’s Weekly Winners – Week 2

 

Well, this section sure didn’t live up to its name last week did it… Thanks in part to the Chargers offense screwing up basic things like snapping the ball, running a route, catching passes etc. but mostly thanks to the Chicago Bears sucking so badly.  So I have instituted a new rule that I am going to stick to this year. Eliminate the obvious.  Find the one game that you think just can’t lose, where the result is so blindingly obvious that you are even tempted to chew off more points for a better price.  Find this Sure Fire Winner (Trade Mark Pending) and strike it from your betting ticket.

My SFW pick for this week: The Packers at the -8 at home to the Jets.  I think the Packers will win, and win well (there’s no way they go 0-2 is there??), but the little voice in my head (that sounds a bit like Tony Soprano for some reason) is telling me to put the house on it, so that’s an ETO if I ever saw one.  No need to carry me this week Aaron.

So, steering away from Green Bay I am going to head just over yonder to Minnesota.  The Vikings were good last week, the Patriots, not so much (Go Fins!).  Now you don’t expect the Pats to lose the opening two games of the season (or the Saints or Packers for that matter), but as Gargy kindly pointed out in his previous post, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  2 and 8!  And if we follow the “dogs with the points” theory as per my previous post, and that dog is defending its own turf, and it already has money coming for it – it’s a no brainer (although not a Sure Fire Winner)

$50 Vikings + 3  @ 1.87 to return $93.50

One of the other big surprise packets for me out of the opening weekend were the Titans, and they continue to fly under the radar.  Locker looked pretty good against the Chiefs, and while I picked the Chiefs to regress this season, it was still an emphatic win by the Tennessee boys at Arrowhead.  Back in Nashville, they face a Cowboys outfit that was beaten by the 49ers by half time, and I think they can do it again.  The line is at -3.5 which worries me a tad, so I am going to multi up with another team that I thought was super impressive week 1;

$50 Titans (H2H) into Falcons +5 @ 2.96 to return $148

There are a couple of no-touchies for me this week (in addition to my SFW above).  The first is the Seattle @ Chargers game.  I think Gargy is right that Seattle will provide no relief from the defensive pressure applied by Arizona, and may even take it up a notch.  Having said that, the Chargers could have won that game had a few things fallen in their favour.  The Chargers could spring back here.  I also think you want to stay away from Arizona @ New York.  It is an emotional time in NYC at the moment, being the anniversary of 9-11.  I don’t like messing with emotion and I would like to see one more week of Eli adapting to the new offence before writing them off for the season.  Finally, no betting on Steelers @ Ravens – the whole Ray Rice distraction vs seige mentality thing is too hard to split for mine.

NFL week 2- Gargy’s Bets

Gargy- Hello again guys, I hope you all followed my week 1 selections, as I was very close to a perfect week and if bloody Romo didn’t throw 3 picks the overs would have collected. Week 2 is upon us and my advice to everyone is stick solid, who did you circle to win the divisions that lost? Who did you think would be terrible this year, however won in week 1?- who cares.. do not panic stay solid.

Now this week there are a few team who you can back as favourites straight out head to head, starting with –

  • The Packers. They got hammered week 1 but they were playing the Seahawks, this week they are at home to the Jets, who we did select and cash last week, but that was simply because the Raiders are even worse. $1.23 head to head, the line is 8 which does make feel a tad nervous, as I hate line over 2 scoring plays. Maybe a play in between and pick your own start, or if you are looking for a banker in your multiples have them head to head
  • The Saints. The Falcons and Matt Ryan were better than I thought they would be and to be honest the Saints defence was bad, you score 30 odd points you should win. $1.36 head to head or a line of a flat 6. I would be so suprised if the Saints started the year 0/2
  • The Seahawks. $1.38 vs Shirty’s Chargers. The Cardinals (who do have a great defensive unit) blitzed the Chargers all day; they sent 5, 6, sometimes 7 dudes charging towards rivers and then the DB’s all went man on. I see no reason why Pete Carroll wont do the same again and Seattle have a better secondary, so I am rolling with the theory if the Cards can get it done, so can Seattle- $1.38 fill em up
  • The other good price is Arizona. $1.68 vs the NY Giants. I thought Eli and the G- Men would be bad and Detroit didn’t even play all that well and still smoked the Giants, the only warning is underdog theory and the fact Big Blue are at home, is this was in the dessert in Arizona they would be $1.22- but I think its another good leg for the multiple’s.

I think there are couple of danger games and these are legs which destroy multi’s- Hello Jay Cutler and the Bears week 1 but the one which stands out for me is The Pats @ $1.65 head to head vs the Vikings. I think I underestimated the Vikings, although Tom Brady doesn’t start the year 0 from 2 does he? Surely not, but the Pats are 2 from 8 on their last 8 road games. This game will be close, avoid it.

So the $100 this week we are looking at a couple of multi’s

$60 on Packers->Saints to return $105

$40 on Seahawks-> Cardinals->Jags +13.5 to return $196

My best outsider

I went 2/2 on the outsiders last week and this week I only have 1 decent outsider-the Jaguars at $3.21 vs the Skins this week. The Jags were actually up 17-0 vs the Eagles, where as the Skins could only manage 6 points against the Texans. RG3 doesn’t look anything like the guy he was in 2012, the Jags aren’t actually that bad, for pussies you take the 6 points start, Shirt is this one of your underdogs that collects this week? Let me know champion..

Year of the Dog

 

year-of-the-dog

 

Underdogs with the points, that’s apparently the punting lesson from week 1.  Bill Simmons over at Grantland  has been talking about this for weeks in his columns and on his podcast (the BS Report – essential listening for any self respecting NFL fan).  Last year saw favourites cover the start more often than not.  Make no mistake though, this was an aberration.  All things being equal, apparently on a statistical basis you are generally slightly better taking the underdog with the points than the fav giving them away.  And the Simmons theory is that this year will see a “snap back” where the underdogs get their revenge.

So how is that looking after week 1?  Well, using the record of the lines available at Football Locks week 1 was most certainly a Dog’s Day Out;

Capture

Wow.  Bearing in mind that if the bookies were perfect, the Underdog/Fav split should be 50/50, that’s a pretty big win for the Dogs.  Now I have no idea what the stats are on Dogs getting home in week 1 (maybe it’s more likely because of uncertainty), and whether we are likely to see a correction in week 2.  I’m also not sure whether this result will cause Vegas to tighten the lines a bit.  But on the face of it, there seems to be something to what Simmons is saying.  Take the points – it’s the Year of the Dog!!